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They say that sentiment is often a contrary indicator, but in TheStreet.com RealMoney Barometer it seems to reflect the prevailing trend.
Perhaps alarmed by Friday’s stock market selloff driven by problems in subprime-mortgage lending, investors took a bearish outlook in our weekly poll. It was the first time the poll was bearish since Oct. 9.
Of the 1,389 votes cast, the bears recorded a convincing 618, or 44%. The bulls came in at 25% with 348 votes. Neutral continued its consistent showing with 423 votes, or 30%.
In the sectors, likely due to gold’s recent rise, precious metals was seen as the sector most likely to rise. Homebuilding, faced with more signs of a persistent slowdown, was tapped as the sector most likely to fall this week.
Several companies were making M&A news. India’s Hindalco will buy Novelis (NVL) in a roughly $6 billion deal, and Tenaris (TS) will acquire Hydril (HYDL) for $2.16 billion.
Two other potential hookups might be finished. Nasdaq Stock Market’s (NDAQ) $5.3 billion bid for the London Stock Exchange has failed, and rumored talks between Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) have come to an end, according to a published report.
Dow component Home Depot (HD) added 1.1% to $41.45 after the seller of home-improvement goods said it might consider a sale or spinoff of its supply unit. The division has roughly $12 billion in annual sales.
The stock market was trading lower on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 27 points, or 0.22%, to 12,554. The Nasdaq Composite was trading at 2448, down about 12 points, or 0.47%. The S&P 500 was at 1433.33, down about 5 points, or 0.33%.
Crude oil was down significantly on Monday. Light, sweet crude for March delivery was trading down $2.23 to $57.66 a barrel on the Nymex.
Below are the complete poll results.
Date Bullish Bearish Neutral Week Ending
S&P % Change Bullish
Sector Bearish Sector
Feb. 12 348 (25%) 618 (44%) 423 (30%) Precious Metals Homebuilding
Feb. 5 781 (54%) 272 (19%) 389 (27%) - 0.6% Energy Equipment & Services Homebuilding
Jan. 29 901 (43%) 440 (21%) 737 (35%) + 1.8% Integrated Oil Homebuilding
Jan. 22 582 (40%) 357 (24%) 520 (36%) - 0.6% Energy Equipment & Services Semis, Semi Equipment
Sector Total Votes Percentage
Aerospace and Defense 69 5%
Airlines 17 1%
Automobiles 26 2%
Beverages and Food Products 50 4%
Biotechnology 57 4%
Commercial Banks 33 2%
Computers and Peripherals 27 2%
Consumer Nondurables 31 2%
Energy Equipment & Services 174 13%
HMOs and Hospitals 26 2%
Homebuilding 19 1%
Insurance 50 4%
Integrated Oil 216 16%
Internet, Software Services 29 2%
Investment Bankers and Brokers 52 4%
Media 19 1%
Multiline Retail 14 1%
Pharmaceuticals 47 3%
Precious Metals 226 16%
Semis, Semi Equipment 29 2%
Telecom Equipment 50 4%
Tobacco and Alcohol 43 3%
Utilities 62 4%
Wireless Communications 18 1%
Source: RealMoney.com
Sector Total Votes Percentage
Aerospace and Defense 11 1%
Airlines 98 7%
Automobiles 67 5%
Beverages and Food Products 8 1%
Biotechnology 23 2%
Commercial Banks 131 9%
Computers and Peripherals 61 4%
Consumer Nondurables 8 1%
Energy Equipment & Services 30 2%
HMOs and Hospitals 13 1%
Homebuilding 296 21%
Insurance 16 1%
Integrated Oil 68 5%
Internet, Software Services 56 4%
Investment Bankers and Brokers 78 6%
Media 24 2%
Multiline Retail 36 3%
Pharmaceuticals 36 3%
Precious Metals 56 4%
Semis, Semi Equipment 168 12%
Telecom Equipment 37 3%
Tobacco and Alcohol 13 1%
Utilities 17 1%
Wireless Communications 27 2%
Source: RealMoney.com