e-Coops

Miner Phelps Dodge (PD) reported a big jump in fourth-quarter earnings amid higher copper prices.

The company, which is in the process of being acquired by Freeport McMoRan (FCX) , earned $1.32 billion, or $6.50 a share, in the December quarter.

Excluding certain items, earnings were $4.71 a share. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call expected earnings of $4.28 a share on this basis.

Phelps Dodge posted revenue of $3.24 billion, slightly short of Wall Street’s target of $3.49 billion.

During the year-earlier period, the company earned $121.3 million, or 60 cents a share, on revenue of $2.26 billion. The year-earlier results included a one-time charge of $204.2 million, or $1.01 a share.

Phelps Dodge said results were boosted by higher copper prices, which averaged $3.19 a pound in the quarter, compared with $2.03 per pound a year earlier. The company also recorded a $156.7 million gain from mark-to-market accounting.

“As a result of actions we took during the past few years, we are in excellent condition both operationally and financially,” the company said. “We continue to benefit from strong prices for copper and molybdenum, each of which reflects solid market fundamentals.”

Shares of Phelps Dodge were trading down 52 cents to $123.75.

This entry was posted on Friday, March 30th, 2007 at 12:30 pm and is filed under Finance. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

In the calm before the storm Tuesday , the markets were sanguine ahead of the year’s first Fed Open Market Committee meeting and a deluge of data. As the data streams in Wednesday morning, traders are letting their nerves show.

For good reason — economic growth accelerated at faster-than-expected 3.5% pace in the fourth quarter of 2006 and that’s with a growing drag from the residential housing market. Housing activity fell 19.2%, topping the third quarter’s 18.8% decline. The consensus had expected growth at 3% in the fourth quarter. The data brings the pace of growth for all of 2006 to 3.4%, greater than the 3.2% growth in 2005.

“What slowdown?” quips Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners.

Major averages struggled Wednesday morning on the news as faster growth gets investors inflation and rate hike fears up and running. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are in the red, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up marginally in recent trading thanks to strength in Boeing (BA) following its stellar earnings report.

Breaking down the figures, consumer spending increased 4.4% in the fourth quarter, up from 2.8% in the third. Government spending also increased 3.7%, and defense spending added 12%. Housing’s 19.2% fall was the largest since 1991, and it is down for five straight quarters. Indeed, housing dragged GDP down 1.2% in the fourth quarter. Investment in equipment and software was also weak, and the unsung hero was trade. Exports jumped 10% in the quarter compared with 6.8% in the third. Imports decreased 3.2% in the fourth quarter.

Inflation-wise, the numbers were benign. Core personal consumption expenditures came in at a 2.1% pace of growth for the fourth quarter, lower than the 2.2% third quarter reading. Likewise, the fourth-quarter employment cost index Wednesday morning showed a 0.8% increase, lower than the 1% analysts expected.

Nevertheless, investors are concerned about inflation from rising wages and above-trend economic growth. The risk premium on inflation-protected Treasury notes is creeping up, notes Randy Diamond, trader at Miller Tabak. Friday’s payrolls report for January, which provides a read on average hourly earnings, will offer more insight into wage inflation.

As for what GDP means to the Fed, the markets still expect no change in rates Wednesday. But traders expect the policy statement will be more hawkish than those of recent meetings, mostly to acknowledge stronger fourth-quarter growth and signs of stabilization in the housing market.

Indeed, “if you take housing out of the equation, you have a booming economy, inflation running higher than the Fed’s ‘comfort zone,’ a strong consumer, wages pushing higher and unemployment running at full employment,” says Marc Pado, chief market analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald. “Under those circumstances, the Fed will be scratching their head to find a reason not to raise rates.”

Darda notes that if you remove housing and autos, the economy grew at 6% pace in the fourth quarter.

Raising the hawkish rhetoric may have more weight for the markets with the stronger-than-expected GDP number in hand. At 2:15 p.m. the FOMC will release its statement.

As it stands, the investors are not contemplating any move by the Fed through most of 2007. Just a month ago, traders were debating whether the Fed would cut rates in March or May. As of late Tuesday, the fed funds futures market prices in less than 50% odds of a single rate cut by the end of the year, according to Miller Tabak. Even minor odds of a rate hike — 4% in May — have crept into the market to really confuse things.

RBC Capital Market’s chief fixed-income strategist T.J. Marta says the Treasury market may have a “sell the rumor, buy the news” reaction to the Fed’s statement Wednesday. Last week, Treasury yields rose sharply as traders removed the “oh my God, we’re doing down view” from the table, he says. Rumors of a report in the market claiming inside information about a more hawkish FOMC statement means the market has already priced in the more aggressive statement, he adds.

Ahead of the Fed’s statement, Treasury bonds initially sold off, but then rallied on a weaker than expected Chicago PMI report for January at 10:00 a.m. EST. A read on manufacturing activity in the region, the report came in at 48.8, the lowest since April 2003. Likewise, construction spending fell 0.4% in the month, lower than consensus expectations for a flat reading.

Indeed, the Fed is still likely to reference worries about housing and possibly manufacturing to justify its pause, and the fourth-quarter GDP report and some regional manufacturing reports gives them ample evidence. Fears of what higher interest rates and adjustable-rate mortgage resets might do to the overall economy are still good enough reason for the Fed to tolerate a strong economy and slightly higher inflation.

“The Fed is on hold for the year,” says James Bianco, president of Bianco Research.

But, “the Fed has to stay vigilant,” says Darda, noting that the consumer has remained strong. “Their biggest fear was that housing would have a spillover effect to the consumer. Not only has that not happened, but the consumer is accelerating,” he notes. “The idea that they would ease into this environment is ridiculous.”

The minutes from the Dec. 12 Fed meeting acknowledged that “there were some indications that home sales might be starting to stabilize,” and that “the adjustment of activity and prices in the housing market did not appear to have spilled over significantly to consumer spending.” Also, the only thing Bernanke said about the economy when he testified before the Senate Budget Committee earlier this month was that manufacturing is not hollowing out, particularly given the most recent industrial production data.

While regional manufacturing surveys may reveal that the Fed’s tightening cycle has had its impact, the real test of the tightening is in the labor market, which has shown no signs of weakening thus far. Without rising unemployment, the Fed is unlikely to consider rate cuts. Indeed, Fed officials of late have repeatedly mentioned the heightened threat of wage inflation, with unemployment at 4.50% and showing no signs of slipping. As San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen says, the labor market is “gangbusters.”

Stay tuned.

This entry was posted on Thursday, February 15th, 2007 at 10:44 pm and is filed under . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Editor’s Note: As a special feature for February, TheStreet.com offers a five-part series on Valentine’s Day designed to help you find the perfect gift.

This Valentine’s Day, don’t blame your significant other for being possessive. We all know and hate that smothering feeling, but when you think about it, can you blame them for wanting a monopoly on your fantastic self?

Selfishness is a virtue, said philosopher Ayn Rand, so there’s no shame in narcissism, especially if you share it with your special someone to make them feel unique this Valentine’s Day. Creating a product that’s yours alone is hard to come by, but these three companies take customization very seriously, offering people their own lines of perfume, vodka and truffles. Eau de Me

Francis Kurkdjian compares his custom-made Sur Mesure fragrances to the haute couture seen on Paris’s runways, the city where he lives.

In fact, many of his clients wear haute couture on a daily basis, so a one-of-a-kind fragrance is a must. “It’s a state of mind and a state of living to have everything customized,” says Kurkdjian.

In 2001, Kurkdjian began making tailor-made perfumes for a very select, private clientele who want to avoid telling others what label they are wearing.

Even niche products just don’t cut it anymore for those seeking an item absolutely nobody else has access to, says Kurkdjian.

Time and money are no object when Kurkdjian conjures his fragrances. “My only limit is my own imagination.”

It takes him two to eight months to create a fragrance specific to a client’s parameters and tastes. After Kurkdjian finds the perfect scent, the perfume is delivered in a one-ounce flacon made of special glass, which is engraved and hand-sealed with wax.

And Kurkdjian is offering a new service for clients who don’t have two months to wait — perfect for those looking for a last-minute Valentine’s Day gift.
Perfume She’ll Never Forget

If you’ll be in Paris for a few days, call ahead and discuss your olfactory theme with Kurkdjian. Then when you arrive in the city, choose your scent from eight samples. “It becomes your personal fragrance; the only one in the world,” says Kurkdjian.

Prices vary depending on what ingredients go into the mix — irises are among the priciest.

The first batch costs about $10,000 with refills coming at about $200 a pop. “Because I Have a Big Ego”

That was production designer Scott Chambliss’ answer when asked why he created his own line of couture vodka.

“And because I thought my friends would be amused by the thought of Mr. Party Thrower having his own personalized hooch to splash around at gatherings.”

Chambliss was the first customer of Haute, Modern Spirits’ bespoke vodka service.

Modern Spirits, a maker of naturally flavored, handmade vodkas introduced this service for the ultra-wealthy late last year.

Melkon Khosrovian and his wife, Litty, co-owners and founders of Modern Spirits, soon found a huge demand for their decadent service.

“I had tasted several of their infusions at gatherings with friends and was completely knocked out by their originality and sophistication,” says Chambliss.

Starting at $15,000 for a 10-case minimum, companies and individual clients can create a custom, commercially viable spirits line available only to them. Ten cases is 120 bottles, and Modern Spirits delivers everywhere from Kenya to a yacht in Greece.

Modern Spirits is the first of its kind in their industry to take personalization to this level. “It’s like getting a tailor to make you an entire wardrobe — rather than shortening your pant leg,” says Melkon.

“It’s a service for the ultra-wealthy that will set them apart from other wealthy people.”

Some vineyards private-label a barrel of wine for you, but the wine itself is still their product. The Modern Spirits process is unique in that it creates an entirely new product and the client is involved in every level of production.

First, Melkon and Litty profile the client. “We [look at] almost every aspect of how they relate to food and drink and how they entertain,” says Melkon.

Many clients want flavors and aromas to evoke a certain memory, such as lavender honey evoking one client’s memories of the south of France.

The client chooses one of three samples and then the Khosrovians begin the legally laden registration process, which includes approval by the Tax and Trade Bureau.

“We go through all the hoops so you get a bona fide product,” says Litty. “It’s not something to enter into lightly.”

After that, they bottle the custom creation with the client’s name on the label. Clients can even create a unique bottle mold. The process takes about three to five months and only the client can order additional bottles.

The Khosrovians have kept the secretive service low-key and only select a certain number of clients.

Litty stresses a great gift-giving opportunity through Haute. “This is one way clients can share one of the most intimate aspects of what makes them unique. It’s a way to share your personal tastes with someone else.”

“Just the adventure of coming up with the final flavor itself with Litty and Melkon was a blast,” said Chambliss. “Now I wish … that we could start the whole delicious process over again. Infused champagne, anyone?”

Truffles for the Happy Couple

Piece of Tranquility

When Dick Pyle’s daughter gave him a Father’s Day bottle of wine made from grapes she owned at a vineyard, he loved the gift, but “it’s a bit of an old hat,” he says.

So in early 2003 he started planting trees for growing truffles in the Le Gers region of France, and then began putting them up for adoption through his company Truffle Tree.

Since then, people from all over the globe, including 70 from the U.S., have adopted a truffle tree all their own in Pyle’s truffiere.

For an initial fee of about $280, you can buy yourself or your significant other a tree. The price covers watering, weeding and general upkeep. It’s $65 per year starting the second year of ownership.

When harvest time comes around, you can have the truffles or a check mailed to you depending on whether you want to eat or sell them. “I can’t imagine anyone selling their truffles,” says Pyle. “It would be like selling your child.”

And like a child, this is a lifelong gift — one tree supports truffles for about 50 years.

Pyle meets many of his adopters who come to stay in the area and spend quality time with their trees and the French countryside. “It must be the people that like truffles that are the nicest people around,” says Pyle.

Notable owners include film writers Paul Haggis and Bill Goldman, who each have two Oscars and truffle trees. One of the Forbes’ top 50 richest men also owns a tree, Pyle disclosed.

So instead of hearts and flowers, tap into your narcissism and knock your one and only off their feet with a gift that’s uniquely you.

Enjoy the Good Life? http://apps.thestreet.com/cms/tsc/feedback.do?authorId=1100652 with what you’d like to see in future articles.

This entry was posted on Thursday, February 15th, 2007 at 7:34 pm and is filed under . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Does this sound familiar?

You’ve learned to trust your instincts. You’ve learned to trust your judgment.

You value your independence and the accomplishments it has brought. Most things work out best when you do them yourself.

And your experiences trusting others to do things for you are mixed at best.

That sounds like me, and I’ll bet it’s a familiar tone for many of you.

As consumed as we are by daily professional life, we still want to be in charge of our affairs — especially our financial affairs. It’s just part of our character.

But for some of you, financial topics such as tax laws, insurance policies and investment analysis trigger a reach for the ignore button. You have no appetite for them.

Or, in a valiant self-recognition of character, you musical virtuosos or crackerjack attorneys realize you simply don’t possess the skills, interest or bandwidth to manage financial affairs. You gladly throw them over the wall to the experts.

But suppose you’ve been doing your finances all along. You’re doing OK; you have a solid grip, and the bills are getting paid.

It can be hard to let go.

When the do-it-yourself home improvement project requires plumbing work — which you’ve never done or don’t want to do — you call in the professionals.

Are there similar boundaries when it comes to your finances?

http://www.thestreet.com/video/personalfinance/10335150.html for the video version of this story from Jennifer Openshaw.

Recognizing when — and why — to bring in financial professionals can facilitate decisions, achieve favorable outcomes and keep your family in harmony.

Here are six signs it may be time for a pro:

- Your answer to most financial questions is: “I would if I had time.”

Pretty obvious, but when financial decisions and planning are always “when I get around to it,” that’s trouble. The longer things are let go, the more there is to get around to. If you get behind, you miss out on opportunities.

- You’re going through a life change with little to no idea how it will turn out.

There are no published statistics on what drives most new clients to financial planners, but when asked, they will say in unison: “life change.”

Getting married, having kids, a job change, kids in college, retirement preparation, retirement implementation and the death of a spouse all bring new complexities. When a life-stage change knocks, have someone with you when you open the door.

- You can’t answer the “what if” question.

What if I (or my spouse) die or become disabled? Most have only a vague idea of how our partners and households will fare if one income goes away. It’s important to be prepared not just for when it happens but also for several years down the road — things such as health care, Medicare eligibility and tax impacts all need attention.

- You have dependents or heirs from more than one family.

It’s hard enough to plan the future with one family unit, but what about two? Or more? Again, what happens if you die or become disabled — how do you want your benefits, income and assets to be handled? It gets messy in a hurry if not planned in advance.

- Your nest egg won’t grow.

You work your butt off, managing to scrape at least a little off the top for retirement savings. But you keep hearing you’ll need a million bucks (at least). Your nest egg has been hovering at $120,000 for quite a while. Are you doing everything right — earning enough, saving enough, investing right?

- You can’t bring yourself to draw from your nest egg.

Obviously this aims at already-retired folks afraid to touch their savings, lest they run out. A financial adviser can construct a realistic distribution plan.

If any of these describe you, it might be time to invest in some professional advice. But what kind of professional advice?

Most of the situations described above cut across several financial disciplines — investing, risk management, estate planning and others. They also mandate a careful assessment of your individual situation, goals and family dynamics.

So I suggest an independent fee-only financial planner.

You don’t need a producer selling you a financial product — you want balanced and holistic advice with no product or training biases thrown in. So fee-only financial planners with a CFP, or certified financial planner, designation make the most sense.

Just make sure to interview them to judge if they really can — or want to — deal with your situation.

If all goes well, your adviser (and his or her professional network) will become a permanent member of your LifeNet, as explained in my upcoming book The Millionaire Zone. It’s nice when help is just a phone call away.

This entry was posted on Thursday, February 15th, 2007 at 10:12 am and is filed under . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Desert Links at Troon North

Loyal readers of this column — hi, Mom! — know that two of my passions are for high-end golf and midcentury modern furniture.

If eBay ever listed a wooden driver designed by Herman Miller, no doubt I would be maxing out my credit card.

So for me Scottsdale, Ariz., might as well be Shangri-La.

That this desert town boasts as many great private and public courses as anyplace west of the Mississippi will come as no shock to serious golfers.

On the private side, there is Desert Highlands, Estancia Club, the Golf Club Scottsdale and Whisper Rock (Phil Mickelson’s old place, and home club to umpteen PGA Tour pros), never mind the six — yes, six — Jack Nicklaus-designed tracks at Desert Mountain. For people who know people, these are all top-notch, if unnecessary, options, given the breadth of resort and daily-fee play.

Anyone with deep pockets who wants to be close to all the great shopping — retro or modern — that Scottsdale and neighboring Phoenix have to offer should stay at The Phoenician, the majestic, venerable resort in the shadow of Camelback Mountain.

It’s as luxe as all get-out but also relaxed and personable, with amenities coming out its cacti (and the Funicians Kids Club means Mom and Dad can indeed make time for themselves). The on-site 27-hole course is one of the most charming, old-school layouts in town, not the aerial-focused “target golf” generally associated with desert-area designs.

If you should happen to fire a career-best score, you can celebrate at the remarkable T. Cook’s restaurant at the Mediterranean-styled Royal Palms Resort and Spa, just a quarter-mile down the road and the place where President Bush stays when he’s in town. The food is so superb that I bet Senator McCain even meets him there.

The Phoenician puts you close by many other excellent courses, especially the 27 holes at the Westin Kierland Resort & Spa, where the renowned husband-and-wife teaching team of Mike and Sandy LaBauve ply their trade.

For a more Southwestern, nature-centric vibe, the obvious lodging choice is the Four Seasons Scottsdale in the foothills of Pinnacle Peak, with lovely, spacious adobe casitas and incomparable scenery.

This base of operations will put you down the road from the most famous, and maybe toughest, of public-access Scottsdale golf clubs, Troon North. This is home to the Monument and Pinnacle courses, the first designed by former British Open champion Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish, and the latter by Weiskopf alone.

Advanced players will welcome the severe challenges on offer; lesser sticks are advised to bring dozens of balls and a glass of milk to wash down all that humble pie. Regardless, the high-desert views will stir one and all.

My wife, Lorraine, and I chose to have our bruised egos — and everything else — kneaded back at the Four Seasons’ spa, with its side-by-side duo massage. (Note to husbands: When the masseuse asks you, “How does that feel?”, don’t murmur, “Ooh … fantastic.” Try “Um, nice.” That said, Lorraine told me she forgot I was even there five minutes into the rubdown.)

Other top-shelf area courses include the TPC Scottsdale, home to the PGA Tour’s always wild-and-crazy FBR Open, and the two Bill Coore/Ben Crenshaw-designed courses at Talking Stick, which, on tribal land, have no houses lining the holes.

All these layouts are well familiar to veteran visitors.

Here’s two that aren’t: the Saguaro course at the Fort McDowell Yavapai Nation’s We-Ko-Pa Golf Club and Vista Verde Golf Club.

We-Ko-Pa’s Cholla course already graces most national Top 100 Public Course lists, and its wonderfully varied and graceful new sibling, by Coore-Crenshaw (who built the legendary Sand Hills in Nebraska, as well as the Plantation Course at Maui’s Kapalua Resort and too many other gems to list), has already won several meaningful “best new” plaudits since its December unveiling.

It’s a delight for shot-makers and navigable for less-accomplished golfers, too, thanks to an absence of forced carries.

Vista Verde’s architect, Ken Kavanaugh, is known only to golf wonks, but he has done excellent work in the Southwest before, and this course, which will eventually become a private facility, only burnishes his reputation.

Unlike too many desert tracks, it’s not claustrophobic, lilypad-to-lilypad golf: A sharp mind is as useful as sharp ball-striking. Off the Fairway

Scottsdale is worth a trip for the golf alone, but unless you’re a 36-holes-a-day masochist, you’ll have time for its other attractions — which in my case meant shopping for mod.

Maybe the most fun stop on my all-too-quick shopping spree was Retro Redux, which mixes fast-selling Knoll, Eames, McCobb and Nelson pieces with oodles of look-alikes and kitschy items, too. It’s a browser’s delight.

Nearby you’ll find the funky Go-Kat-Go, which leans even more toward vintage apparel and accessories, but where Lorraine spotted a chic Oriental clock from the ’60s for a mere $95.

We never made it two other high-end mod meccas, D.A.’s Modern ((602) 252-0001) and Phoenix Metro Retro. But we did find the new location of veteran dealer Red Modern Furniture and were blown away by the quality of its merchandise, from seating to storage to lighting.

Sadly, our bargain-filled dreams were just that: owner Jonathan Wayne knows what he has, and what it’s worth. Although he swore that New York prices were five times as expensive, it felt to us nearly fully valued. If only the stuff was priced in 1950s dollars …

The Fabulous Phoenician

We consoled ourselves with a few cool, small gifts — a bracelet and a pocketbook from the vintage boutique within the store — for my hip sister-in-law. We also took Wayne’s recommendation to have dinner at his brother’s Spanish restaurant down the street, Lola Tapas ((602) 265-4519).

Its nondescript bungalow housing doesn’t sell the place from the street, and the menu is limited — but thankfully, to sensational food only. We met a friend there, and our trio ordered eight of the nine small-plate dishes available. We left blissfully sated. The communal seating isn’t conducive to canoodling, but the place is enjoyably lively.

I hadn’t found a Herman Miller driver in Scottsdale, or even a killer pair of lamps; still, the hunt is the thing. Throw in all the great golf and memorable meals, and like skinny ties, I’ll be back to Scottsdale again soon.

Enjoy the Good Life? http://apps.thestreet.com/cms/tsc/feedback.do?authorId=1100652 with what you’d like to see in future articles.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, February 14th, 2007 at 3:03 pm and is filed under . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

In the calm before the storm Tuesday , the markets were sanguine ahead of the year’s first Fed Open Market Committee meeting and a deluge of data. As the data streams in Wednesday morning, traders are letting their nerves show.

For good reason — economic growth accelerated at faster-than-expected 3.5% pace in the fourth quarter of 2006 and that’s with a growing drag from the residential housing market. Housing activity fell 19.2%, topping the third quarter’s 18.8% decline. The consensus had expected growth at 3% in the fourth quarter. The data brings the pace of growth for all of 2006 to 3.4%, greater than the 3.2% growth in 2005.

“What slowdown?” quips Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners.

Major averages struggled Wednesday morning on the news as faster growth gets investors inflation and rate hike fears up and running. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are in the red, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up marginally in recent trading thanks to strength in Boeing (BA) following its stellar earnings report.

Breaking down the figures, consumer spending increased 4.4% in the fourth quarter, up from 2.8% in the third. Government spending also increased 3.7%, and defense spending added 12%. Housing’s 19.2% fall was the largest since 1991, and it is down for five straight quarters. Indeed, housing dragged GDP down 1.2% in the fourth quarter. Investment in equipment and software was also weak, and the unsung hero was trade. Exports jumped 10% in the quarter compared with 6.8% in the third. Imports decreased 3.2% in the fourth quarter.

Inflation-wise, the numbers were benign. Core personal consumption expenditures came in at a 2.1% pace of growth for the fourth quarter, lower than the 2.2% third quarter reading. Likewise, the fourth-quarter employment cost index Wednesday morning showed a 0.8% increase, lower than the 1% analysts expected.

Nevertheless, investors are concerned about inflation from rising wages and above-trend economic growth. The risk premium on inflation-protected Treasury notes is creeping up, notes Randy Diamond, trader at Miller Tabak. Friday’s payrolls report for January, which provides a read on average hourly earnings, will offer more insight into wage inflation.

As for what GDP means to the Fed, the markets still expect no change in rates Wednesday. But traders expect the policy statement will be more hawkish than those of recent meetings, mostly to acknowledge stronger fourth-quarter growth and signs of stabilization in the housing market.

Indeed, “if you take housing out of the equation, you have a booming economy, inflation running higher than the Fed’s ‘comfort zone,’ a strong consumer, wages pushing higher and unemployment running at full employment,” says Marc Pado, chief market analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald. “Under those circumstances, the Fed will be scratching their head to find a reason not to raise rates.”

Darda notes that if you remove housing and autos, the economy grew at 6% pace in the fourth quarter.

Raising the hawkish rhetoric may have more weight for the markets with the stronger-than-expected GDP number in hand. At 2:15 p.m. the FOMC will release its statement.

As it stands, the investors are not contemplating any move by the Fed through most of 2007. Just a month ago, traders were debating whether the Fed would cut rates in March or May. As of late Tuesday, the fed funds futures market prices in less than 50% odds of a single rate cut by the end of the year, according to Miller Tabak. Even minor odds of a rate hike — 4% in May — have crept into the market to really confuse things.

RBC Capital Market’s chief fixed-income strategist T.J. Marta says the Treasury market may have a “sell the rumor, buy the news” reaction to the Fed’s statement Wednesday. Last week, Treasury yields rose sharply as traders removed the “oh my God, we’re doing down view” from the table, he says. Rumors of a report in the market claiming inside information about a more hawkish FOMC statement means the market has already priced in the more aggressive statement, he adds.

Ahead of the Fed’s statement, Treasury bonds initially sold off, but then rallied on a weaker than expected Chicago PMI report for January at 10:00 a.m. EST. A read on manufacturing activity in the region, the report came in at 48.8, the lowest since April 2003. Likewise, construction spending fell 0.4% in the month, lower than consensus expectations for a flat reading.

Indeed, the Fed is still likely to reference worries about housing and possibly manufacturing to justify its pause, and the fourth-quarter GDP report and some regional manufacturing reports gives them ample evidence. Fears of what higher interest rates and adjustable-rate mortgage resets might do to the overall economy are still good enough reason for the Fed to tolerate a strong economy and slightly higher inflation.

“The Fed is on hold for the year,” says James Bianco, president of Bianco Research.

But, “the Fed has to stay vigilant,” says Darda, noting that the consumer has remained strong. “Their biggest fear was that housing would have a spillover effect to the consumer. Not only has that not happened, but the consumer is accelerating,” he notes. “The idea that they would ease into this environment is ridiculous.”

The minutes from the Dec. 12 Fed meeting acknowledged that “there were some indications that home sales might be starting to stabilize,” and that “the adjustment of activity and prices in the housing market did not appear to have spilled over significantly to consumer spending.” Also, the only thing Bernanke said about the economy when he testified before the Senate Budget Committee earlier this month was that manufacturing is not hollowing out, particularly given the most recent industrial production data.

While regional manufacturing surveys may reveal that the Fed’s tightening cycle has had its impact, the real test of the tightening is in the labor market, which has shown no signs of weakening thus far. Without rising unemployment, the Fed is unlikely to consider rate cuts. Indeed, Fed officials of late have repeatedly mentioned the heightened threat of wage inflation, with unemployment at 4.50% and showing no signs of slipping. As San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen says, the labor market is “gangbusters.”

Stay tuned.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, February 13th, 2007 at 4:54 pm and is filed under . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

The chairman of Putnam’s fund trustees is vowing that investors will suffer little if any disruption as a result of the company’s sale.

“One of the things that attracted the board to this was the likelihood that very little will change,” John Hill told me Wednesday, just hours after it was announced that Putnam would be sold to Canada’s Power Financial for $3.9 billion.

“I think we’ll see the same lineup of funds a year from now, and we’ll see the same portfolio managers — as long as performance remains strong in the areas where it has been strong, and it continues to improve in the areas where it still needs improvement.”

Hill chairs the trustees who oversee the funds on behalf of the investors.

One thing to watch: Putnam’s 11 closed-end funds. “We’re having a board meeting next Thursday and Friday, and Putnam is coming forward with a series of recommendations across the board with regard to the closed-end funds,” Hill said. “Over the next week to 10 days we may announce some proposals. We like closed-end funds, and we’re looking at ways to modernize them going forward.” Valuable Information

Hill declined to indicate what the changes might be, saying “these are publicly traded funds.” In doing so, he tacitly acknowledged that the proposals might have an impact on the closed-end funds’ price. Regulations bar the ad hoc release of price-sensitive information, because a private investor could work an angle on the deal if the funds start to move up.

And there’s reason to think they might. “This deal is a potential catalyst for Putnam closed-end funds,” says Larry Glazer, a managing partner at Mayflower Advisors in Boston and a longtime Putnam watcher. “Putnam closed-ends perennially traded at a discount because of the uncertainty around the company, and this removes that uncertainty.”

Closed-end funds, unlike standard open-ended mutual funds, have a fixed number of units in circulation, and these trade throughout the day on the stock exchange like an ordinary stock. Sometimes units trade at a discount to their underlying assets, giving you a great opportunity to buy $1 worth of assets for, say, 95 cents or even less. A Free Pop

Which is where we are now with Putnam’s closed-ends. Maybe the company’s new owner, Power Financial from Canada, will rebrand the funds. Or maybe it will reorganize or merge some of them. Or maybe it will just fold them all into an open-ended fund. It’s too early to know.

But if any of this happens, you could be looking at a free pop of 10% or so. It doesn’t shoot out the lights, but then you’re not taking a lot of risk. These are diversified bond funds.

“This change is a potential catalyst for the Putnam closed-ends,” says Glazer. “When we look at these types of funds, we look at the discounts, the credit quality and the sustainability of the yields.”

He highlights four Putnam funds that could be worth a look. With Putnam Municipal Bond, you were paying just 92 cents per dollar of assets at last count. The fund has $13.61 worth of munis per unit, but those units were trading for just $12.50.

Municipal Bond has a pretty plain-vanilla municipals portfolio. About half the bonds are AAA-rated. Nearly four-fifths are A-rated or better. And the portfolio is concentrated toward the short end of the yield curve. Just 7% of the fund is invested in munis that have a 10-year duration or longer.

Does that matter? Only if you think we may see more inflation down the pike than the market is currently expecting. You can count me in. Savvy Savings

Bonds are like bank accounts that can never raise their interest rates. So if inflation rises over the next, say, 10 years, someone holding a 30-year bond is going to get the shaft. Back in the hyperinflationary 1970s, long-dated bonds collapsed. Who wants to buy a 5% fixed yield when inflation is running at 10% and the bank will pay you 12%?

The great advantage of municipal bonds is that their interest is free from federal income tax. At current prices, Municipal Bond’s monthly dividends add up to an annual yield of 4.84%, tax free. If you’re in the top federal tax income bracket, you’d need to earn 6.72% before tax to get that kind of deal.

The Putnam Municipal Opportunities fund takes a little more risk — 10% of the money is in bonds longer than 10 years, and 23% in bonds rated BBB or below. The units also trade at 92 cents on the dollar, or $12.03 per $13.16 in assets. The yield is 4.84% tax free.

The figures are similar for Putnam Investment Grade Municipals. This fund’s holdings are all high grade, with a duration of between five and 10 years. Once again you’re paying 92 cents on the dollar — $10.05 per unit, against $10.94 in assets — and getting a 4.88% tax-free yield.

Putnam High-Yield Municipals offers slightly more risk, and at $7.38 per unit it trades at 93 cents per dollar of assets. But it pays out more too: a tax-free yield of 5.28%. In the top tax bracket you’d need to earn 7.34% to take home the same amount.

These are useful discounts, especially if you were looking to put some money into munis in the first place. Stay tuned.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, February 13th, 2007 at 7:23 am and is filed under . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

In the calm before the storm Tuesday , the markets were sanguine ahead of the year’s first Fed Open Market Committee meeting and a deluge of data. As the data streams in Wednesday morning, traders are letting their nerves show.

For good reason — economic growth accelerated at faster-than-expected 3.5% pace in the fourth quarter of 2006 and that’s with a growing drag from the residential housing market. Housing activity fell 19.2%, topping the third quarter’s 18.8% decline. The consensus had expected growth at 3% in the fourth quarter. The data brings the pace of growth for all of 2006 to 3.4%, greater than the 3.2% growth in 2005.

“What slowdown?” quips Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners.

Major averages struggled Wednesday morning on the news as faster growth gets investors inflation and rate hike fears up and running. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are in the red, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up marginally in recent trading thanks to strength in Boeing (BA) following its stellar earnings report.

Breaking down the figures, consumer spending increased 4.4% in the fourth quarter, up from 2.8% in the third. Government spending also increased 3.7%, and defense spending added 12%. Housing’s 19.2% fall was the largest since 1991, and it is down for five straight quarters. Indeed, housing dragged GDP down 1.2% in the fourth quarter. Investment in equipment and software was also weak, and the unsung hero was trade. Exports jumped 10% in the quarter compared with 6.8% in the third. Imports decreased 3.2% in the fourth quarter.

Inflation-wise, the numbers were benign. Core personal consumption expenditures came in at a 2.1% pace of growth for the fourth quarter, lower than the 2.2% third quarter reading. Likewise, the fourth-quarter employment cost index Wednesday morning showed a 0.8% increase, lower than the 1% analysts expected.

Nevertheless, investors are concerned about inflation from rising wages and above-trend economic growth. The risk premium on inflation-protected Treasury notes is creeping up, notes Randy Diamond, trader at Miller Tabak. Friday’s payrolls report for January, which provides a read on average hourly earnings, will offer more insight into wage inflation.

As for what GDP means to the Fed, the markets still expect no change in rates Wednesday. But traders expect the policy statement will be more hawkish than those of recent meetings, mostly to acknowledge stronger fourth-quarter growth and signs of stabilization in the housing market.

Indeed, “if you take housing out of the equation, you have a booming economy, inflation running higher than the Fed’s ‘comfort zone,’ a strong consumer, wages pushing higher and unemployment running at full employment,” says Marc Pado, chief market analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald. “Under those circumstances, the Fed will be scratching their head to find a reason not to raise rates.”

Darda notes that if you remove housing and autos, the economy grew at 6% pace in the fourth quarter.

Raising the hawkish rhetoric may have more weight for the markets with the stronger-than-expected GDP number in hand. At 2:15 p.m. the FOMC will release its statement.

As it stands, the investors are not contemplating any move by the Fed through most of 2007. Just a month ago, traders were debating whether the Fed would cut rates in March or May. As of late Tuesday, the fed funds futures market prices in less than 50% odds of a single rate cut by the end of the year, according to Miller Tabak. Even minor odds of a rate hike — 4% in May — have crept into the market to really confuse things.

RBC Capital Market’s chief fixed-income strategist T.J. Marta says the Treasury market may have a “sell the rumor, buy the news” reaction to the Fed’s statement Wednesday. Last week, Treasury yields rose sharply as traders removed the “oh my God, we’re doing down view” from the table, he says. Rumors of a report in the market claiming inside information about a more hawkish FOMC statement means the market has already priced in the more aggressive statement, he adds.

Ahead of the Fed’s statement, Treasury bonds initially sold off, but then rallied on a weaker than expected Chicago PMI report for January at 10:00 a.m. EST. A read on manufacturing activity in the region, the report came in at 48.8, the lowest since April 2003. Likewise, construction spending fell 0.4% in the month, lower than consensus expectations for a flat reading.

Indeed, the Fed is still likely to reference worries about housing and possibly manufacturing to justify its pause, and the fourth-quarter GDP report and some regional manufacturing reports gives them ample evidence. Fears of what higher interest rates and adjustable-rate mortgage resets might do to the overall economy are still good enough reason for the Fed to tolerate a strong economy and slightly higher inflation.

“The Fed is on hold for the year,” says James Bianco, president of Bianco Research.

But, “the Fed has to stay vigilant,” says Darda, noting that the consumer has remained strong. “Their biggest fear was that housing would have a spillover effect to the consumer. Not only has that not happened, but the consumer is accelerating,” he notes. “The idea that they would ease into this environment is ridiculous.”

The minutes from the Dec. 12 Fed meeting acknowledged that “there were some indications that home sales might be starting to stabilize,” and that “the adjustment of activity and prices in the housing market did not appear to have spilled over significantly to consumer spending.” Also, the only thing Bernanke said about the economy when he testified before the Senate Budget Committee earlier this month was that manufacturing is not hollowing out, particularly given the most recent industrial production data.

While regional manufacturing surveys may reveal that the Fed’s tightening cycle has had its impact, the real test of the tightening is in the labor market, which has shown no signs of weakening thus far. Without rising unemployment, the Fed is unlikely to consider rate cuts. Indeed, Fed officials of late have repeatedly mentioned the heightened threat of wage inflation, with unemployment at 4.50% and showing no signs of slipping. As San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen says, the labor market is “gangbusters.”

Stay tuned.

This entry was posted on Sunday, February 11th, 2007 at 2:23 pm and is filed under . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

The chairman of Putnam’s fund trustees is vowing that investors will suffer little if any disruption as a result of the company’s sale.

“One of the things that attracted the board to this was the likelihood that very little will change,” John Hill told me Wednesday, just hours after it was announced that Putnam would be sold to Canada’s Power Financial for $3.9 billion.

“I think we’ll see the same lineup of funds a year from now, and we’ll see the same portfolio managers — as long as performance remains strong in the areas where it has been strong, and it continues to improve in the areas where it still needs improvement.”

Hill chairs the trustees who oversee the funds on behalf of the investors.

One thing to watch: Putnam’s 11 closed-end funds. “We’re having a board meeting next Thursday and Friday, and Putnam is coming forward with a series of recommendations across the board with regard to the closed-end funds,” Hill said. “Over the next week to 10 days we may announce some proposals. We like closed-end funds, and we’re looking at ways to modernize them going forward.” Valuable Information

Hill declined to indicate what the changes might be, saying “these are publicly traded funds.” In doing so, he tacitly acknowledged that the proposals might have an impact on the closed-end funds’ price. Regulations bar the ad hoc release of price-sensitive information, because a private investor could work an angle on the deal if the funds start to move up.

And there’s reason to think they might. “This deal is a potential catalyst for Putnam closed-end funds,” says Larry Glazer, a managing partner at Mayflower Advisors in Boston and a longtime Putnam watcher. “Putnam closed-ends perennially traded at a discount because of the uncertainty around the company, and this removes that uncertainty.”

Closed-end funds, unlike standard open-ended mutual funds, have a fixed number of units in circulation, and these trade throughout the day on the stock exchange like an ordinary stock. Sometimes units trade at a discount to their underlying assets, giving you a great opportunity to buy $1 worth of assets for, say, 95 cents or even less. A Free Pop

Which is where we are now with Putnam’s closed-ends. Maybe the company’s new owner, Power Financial from Canada, will rebrand the funds. Or maybe it will reorganize or merge some of them. Or maybe it will just fold them all into an open-ended fund. It’s too early to know.

But if any of this happens, you could be looking at a free pop of 10% or so. It doesn’t shoot out the lights, but then you’re not taking a lot of risk. These are diversified bond funds.

“This change is a potential catalyst for the Putnam closed-ends,” says Glazer. “When we look at these types of funds, we look at the discounts, the credit quality and the sustainability of the yields.”

He highlights four Putnam funds that could be worth a look. With Putnam Municipal Bond, you were paying just 92 cents per dollar of assets at last count. The fund has $13.61 worth of munis per unit, but those units were trading for just $12.50.

Municipal Bond has a pretty plain-vanilla municipals portfolio. About half the bonds are AAA-rated. Nearly four-fifths are A-rated or better. And the portfolio is concentrated toward the short end of the yield curve. Just 7% of the fund is invested in munis that have a 10-year duration or longer.

Does that matter? Only if you think we may see more inflation down the pike than the market is currently expecting. You can count me in. Savvy Savings

Bonds are like bank accounts that can never raise their interest rates. So if inflation rises over the next, say, 10 years, someone holding a 30-year bond is going to get the shaft. Back in the hyperinflationary 1970s, long-dated bonds collapsed. Who wants to buy a 5% fixed yield when inflation is running at 10% and the bank will pay you 12%?

The great advantage of municipal bonds is that their interest is free from federal income tax. At current prices, Municipal Bond’s monthly dividends add up to an annual yield of 4.84%, tax free. If you’re in the top federal tax income bracket, you’d need to earn 6.72% before tax to get that kind of deal.

The Putnam Municipal Opportunities fund takes a little more risk — 10% of the money is in bonds longer than 10 years, and 23% in bonds rated BBB or below. The units also trade at 92 cents on the dollar, or $12.03 per $13.16 in assets. The yield is 4.84% tax free.

The figures are similar for Putnam Investment Grade Municipals. This fund’s holdings are all high grade, with a duration of between five and 10 years. Once again you’re paying 92 cents on the dollar — $10.05 per unit, against $10.94 in assets — and getting a 4.88% tax-free yield.

Putnam High-Yield Municipals offers slightly more risk, and at $7.38 per unit it trades at 93 cents per dollar of assets. But it pays out more too: a tax-free yield of 5.28%. In the top tax bracket you’d need to earn 7.34% to take home the same amount.

These are useful discounts, especially if you were looking to put some money into munis in the first place. Stay tuned.

This entry was posted on Saturday, February 3rd, 2007 at 10:21 am and is filed under . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.