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Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Jan 03 07 15:27 GMT |
Forex Mid-Day Technical Report ISM Manufacturing Fuels Further Dollar Rebound

Dollar stages a strong broad-based rebound today that started in European session. A much weaker than expected ADP employment report has halted dollar’s rise but strength resumes after better than expected ISM manufacturing index that rebounded to 51.4 in Dec. However, price paid index fell short of expectation nand reported at 47.5. Employment index also stay below 50 at 49.7. ADP employment report, which usually serves as a preview of Non-Farm Payroll, unexpected dropped 40k jobs in Dec, much below expectation of 128k addition, the first decline since April 2003.

FOMC Minutes from the December 12 meeting will be featured next. The accompanying statement in this meeting to hold rate unchanged at 5.25% was largely unchanged from prior one with two expectations. The FOMC cited the slowing in economic growth “partly reflecting a substantial cooling of the housing market”. The word “substantial” was an addition from October. Also, the statement noted that “recent indicators have been mixed”, which was new. Focus will be on how the minutes will elaborate on the above issues which could give further hint on whether Fed will cut rates this year.

Employment data from Germany was pretty solid. Total unemployment fell for a ninth consecutive month in December, marking a seasonally adjusted retreat of 108,000. Unadjusted for seasonality, total unemployment rose 12,000. The unadjusted jobless rate was unchanged at 9.6%.

Technically speaking, today’s rebound suggests dollar’s consolidation that started last month is still in progress despite Tuesday’s fall. Some more upside should be seen in dollar but still has such price actions are treated as consolidation only, upside in dollar should be limited. On the other hand, note Sterling is the weaker one in among European majors, as displayed in weakness in EUR/GBP cross too. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3234; (P) 1.3264; (R1) 1.3303; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.3091 was limited at 1.3296 and falls sharply today on broad based dollar weakness. Break of 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.3190) suggests that EUR/USD is still bounded in consolidative price actions that started at 1.3364 and put focus back to 1.3091 low. Break will encourage further decline towards 1.3051 support. But still, since we’re treating this as consolidation to rise from 1.2483 only, downside is expected to be contained by 1.2923/38 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2483 to 1.3362 at 1.2923) and bring rally resumption.

On the upside, above 1.3296 will encourage a retest of 1.3364 high. But still, firm break above 1.3364 is needed to confirm rise from 1.2483 has resumed for 1.3668 resistance (04 high). Otherwise, consolidation might still extend further.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD’s medium term up trend from 1.1639 (06 low) is still in force and is expected to continue towards 1.3668 (04 high) and probably further to 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. However, as it’s unclear whether this rally from 1.1639 represents resumption of multi-year up trend from 0.8223 or just part of a large scale consolidation that started at 1.3668, close attention will be paid to loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as EUR/USD approaches 1.3668 and then 1.3822. On the downside, break of 1.2760 support will turn medium term outlook neutral and argue that whole medium term rally from 1.1639 has possibly completed.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9668; (P) 1.9704; (R1) 1.9770; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable’s rally was limited by 1.9747 resistance and reached 1.9751 only. Subsequent sharp decline has pushed cable through 1.9565 support, suggesting that cable is still bounded in consolidative price actions that started at 1.9846 and puts focus back to 1.9433 low. Break will encourage further decline towards 1.9338/44 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.8834 to 1.9846 at 1.9340, 38.2% retracement of 1.8517 to 1.9846 at 1.9338). However, since we’re treating price actions from 1.9846 as consolidation to rise from 1.8834 only, we’d expect downside to be contained there and bring rally resumption.

On the upside, above 1.9751 will encourage a retest 1.9846 high. But still, a firm break above this level is needed to indicate recent rise from 1.8517 has resumed for 138.2% projection of 1.8090 to 1.9142 from 1.8517 at 1.9971. Otherwise, consolidation could extend further.

In the bigger picture, cable’s medium term up trend from 1.7047 is still in progress and further rise is expected to follow towards 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches 2.0106 cluster resistance. Though, decisive break of this resistance will confirm that long term up trend from 1.3680 has resumed for next upside target of 61.8% projection of 1.3680 to 1.9554 from 1.7047 at 2.0677 first. On the downside, sustained break of 1.9177 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.8517 to 1.9846 at 1.9182, 23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9846 at 1.9185) will turn medium term outlook neutral and argue that the whole rise from 1.7047 has possibly completed.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2111; (P) 1.2134; (R1) 1.2158; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s fall was once again contained by 1.2110 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.1878 to 1.2268 at 1.2119). Subsequent strong rebound has pushed USD/CHF through 1.2209 resistance and is now putting focus back to 1.2269 high. As USD/CHF is still staying above 1.2110 cluster support, rebound from 1.1878 should still be in progress and further rise cannot be ruled out towards 1.2343 resistance. On the downside, decisive break of 1.2110 cluster support is needed indicate rebound from 1.1878 has likely completed and should bring further weakness to retest this low.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.2768 is still in force USD/CHF staying below 1.2343 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.2768 to 1.1878 at 1.2323) and further decline is still in favor. However, a firm break below 1.1878 is needed to confirm such fall has resumed for 100% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2768 at 1.1404. Otherwise, consolidation that started at 1.1878 could extend further. Also, decisive break of 1.2343 will turn medium term outlook neutral and open up some other possibilities. But in any case, a firm break of 1.2343 resistance will likely bring stronger rebound towards 1.2536 resistance and probably further to retest 1.2768 resistance too.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 118.57; (P) 118.74; (R1) 118.99; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY’s rise resumes on broad based dollar strength and yen weakness, reaching as high as 119.48 so far. Bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI continues to that the short term rally from 114.41 is losing momentum. But still, a break below 118.64 support is needed to confirm a short term top is formed. Otherwise further rally is expected to follow towards 119.86 high.

On the downside, break of 118.64 will indicate correction has started and should bring decline to 117.42 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.41 to 119.21 at 117.38) or lower. But downside should be contained by 116.63 support and bring further rally.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 108.99 is still in force after correction from 119.86 was contained at 114.41 above 113.14/39 cluster support (61.87% retracement of 108.99 to 119.86 at 113.14). Break of 119.86 will bring retest of 121.38 resistance (05 high). Also, note that the current rally has pushed USD/JPY above multi-year falling trend line (147.68 to 135.20, now at 117.69) again. Sustained break of 121.38 resistance will confirm that whole up trend from 101.65 has resumed. However, below 116.63 support will argue that whole rally from 114.41 has completed and put focus back to 114.41 low again.

Forex News Digest

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755312609
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 03:20:00 GMT from The Australian

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755312202
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 03:19:00 GMT from Servihoo.com

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755303940
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 03:08:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755302295
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 03:05:00 GMT from New York Times

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755301290
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 03:04:00 GMT from ABC Online

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755290109
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 02:48:00 GMT from The Standard

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755257864
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 02:01:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755243326
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 01:39:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
08:30 CHF Swiss PMI Dec 65 65.9 67
08:55 EUR German Unemployment rate Dec 9.60% 10.10% 10.20%
09:00 EUR German Unemployment change Dec 12K -45 K -86 K
09:30 GBP UK PMI construction Dec 57.5 54.5 54.8
13:15 USD U.S. ADP employment Dec -40K 128 K 158 K
15:00 USD U.S. ISM manufacturing Dec 51.4 50 49.5
15:00 USD U.S. ISM prices paid Dec 47.5 54 53.5
15:00 USD U.S. Construction spending Nov -0.20% -0.50% -1.00% -0.30%
19:00 USD FOMC minutes for Dec 12
21:45 NZD New Zealand Trade balance Nov -0.84 B -1.167 B
21:45 NZD New Zealand Imports Nov 3.72 B 3.88 B
21:45 NZD New Zealand Exports Nov 2.86 B 2.71 B
Japan Market holiday

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

This entry was posted on Thursday, February 22nd, 2007 at 6:23 pm and is filed under FX. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Jan 03 07 15:27 GMT |
Forex Mid-Day Technical Report ISM Manufacturing Fuels Further Dollar Rebound

Dollar stages a strong broad-based rebound today that started in European session. A much weaker than expected ADP employment report has halted dollar’s rise but strength resumes after better than expected ISM manufacturing index that rebounded to 51.4 in Dec. However, price paid index fell short of expectation nand reported at 47.5. Employment index also stay below 50 at 49.7. ADP employment report, which usually serves as a preview of Non-Farm Payroll, unexpected dropped 40k jobs in Dec, much below expectation of 128k addition, the first decline since April 2003.

FOMC Minutes from the December 12 meeting will be featured next. The accompanying statement in this meeting to hold rate unchanged at 5.25% was largely unchanged from prior one with two expectations. The FOMC cited the slowing in economic growth “partly reflecting a substantial cooling of the housing market”. The word “substantial” was an addition from October. Also, the statement noted that “recent indicators have been mixed”, which was new. Focus will be on how the minutes will elaborate on the above issues which could give further hint on whether Fed will cut rates this year.

Employment data from Germany was pretty solid. Total unemployment fell for a ninth consecutive month in December, marking a seasonally adjusted retreat of 108,000. Unadjusted for seasonality, total unemployment rose 12,000. The unadjusted jobless rate was unchanged at 9.6%.

Technically speaking, today’s rebound suggests dollar’s consolidation that started last month is still in progress despite Tuesday’s fall. Some more upside should be seen in dollar but still has such price actions are treated as consolidation only, upside in dollar should be limited. On the other hand, note Sterling is the weaker one in among European majors, as displayed in weakness in EUR/GBP cross too. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3234; (P) 1.3264; (R1) 1.3303; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.3091 was limited at 1.3296 and falls sharply today on broad based dollar weakness. Break of 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.3190) suggests that EUR/USD is still bounded in consolidative price actions that started at 1.3364 and put focus back to 1.3091 low. Break will encourage further decline towards 1.3051 support. But still, since we’re treating this as consolidation to rise from 1.2483 only, downside is expected to be contained by 1.2923/38 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2483 to 1.3362 at 1.2923) and bring rally resumption.

On the upside, above 1.3296 will encourage a retest of 1.3364 high. But still, firm break above 1.3364 is needed to confirm rise from 1.2483 has resumed for 1.3668 resistance (04 high). Otherwise, consolidation might still extend further.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD’s medium term up trend from 1.1639 (06 low) is still in force and is expected to continue towards 1.3668 (04 high) and probably further to 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. However, as it’s unclear whether this rally from 1.1639 represents resumption of multi-year up trend from 0.8223 or just part of a large scale consolidation that started at 1.3668, close attention will be paid to loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as EUR/USD approaches 1.3668 and then 1.3822. On the downside, break of 1.2760 support will turn medium term outlook neutral and argue that whole medium term rally from 1.1639 has possibly completed.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9668; (P) 1.9704; (R1) 1.9770; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable’s rally was limited by 1.9747 resistance and reached 1.9751 only. Subsequent sharp decline has pushed cable through 1.9565 support, suggesting that cable is still bounded in consolidative price actions that started at 1.9846 and puts focus back to 1.9433 low. Break will encourage further decline towards 1.9338/44 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.8834 to 1.9846 at 1.9340, 38.2% retracement of 1.8517 to 1.9846 at 1.9338). However, since we’re treating price actions from 1.9846 as consolidation to rise from 1.8834 only, we’d expect downside to be contained there and bring rally resumption.

On the upside, above 1.9751 will encourage a retest 1.9846 high. But still, a firm break above this level is needed to indicate recent rise from 1.8517 has resumed for 138.2% projection of 1.8090 to 1.9142 from 1.8517 at 1.9971. Otherwise, consolidation could extend further.

In the bigger picture, cable’s medium term up trend from 1.7047 is still in progress and further rise is expected to follow towards 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches 2.0106 cluster resistance. Though, decisive break of this resistance will confirm that long term up trend from 1.3680 has resumed for next upside target of 61.8% projection of 1.3680 to 1.9554 from 1.7047 at 2.0677 first. On the downside, sustained break of 1.9177 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.8517 to 1.9846 at 1.9182, 23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9846 at 1.9185) will turn medium term outlook neutral and argue that the whole rise from 1.7047 has possibly completed.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2111; (P) 1.2134; (R1) 1.2158; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s fall was once again contained by 1.2110 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.1878 to 1.2268 at 1.2119). Subsequent strong rebound has pushed USD/CHF through 1.2209 resistance and is now putting focus back to 1.2269 high. As USD/CHF is still staying above 1.2110 cluster support, rebound from 1.1878 should still be in progress and further rise cannot be ruled out towards 1.2343 resistance. On the downside, decisive break of 1.2110 cluster support is needed indicate rebound from 1.1878 has likely completed and should bring further weakness to retest this low.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.2768 is still in force USD/CHF staying below 1.2343 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.2768 to 1.1878 at 1.2323) and further decline is still in favor. However, a firm break below 1.1878 is needed to confirm such fall has resumed for 100% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2768 at 1.1404. Otherwise, consolidation that started at 1.1878 could extend further. Also, decisive break of 1.2343 will turn medium term outlook neutral and open up some other possibilities. But in any case, a firm break of 1.2343 resistance will likely bring stronger rebound towards 1.2536 resistance and probably further to retest 1.2768 resistance too.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 118.57; (P) 118.74; (R1) 118.99; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY’s rise resumes on broad based dollar strength and yen weakness, reaching as high as 119.48 so far. Bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI continues to that the short term rally from 114.41 is losing momentum. But still, a break below 118.64 support is needed to confirm a short term top is formed. Otherwise further rally is expected to follow towards 119.86 high.

On the downside, break of 118.64 will indicate correction has started and should bring decline to 117.42 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.41 to 119.21 at 117.38) or lower. But downside should be contained by 116.63 support and bring further rally.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 108.99 is still in force after correction from 119.86 was contained at 114.41 above 113.14/39 cluster support (61.87% retracement of 108.99 to 119.86 at 113.14). Break of 119.86 will bring retest of 121.38 resistance (05 high). Also, note that the current rally has pushed USD/JPY above multi-year falling trend line (147.68 to 135.20, now at 117.69) again. Sustained break of 121.38 resistance will confirm that whole up trend from 101.65 has resumed. However, below 116.63 support will argue that whole rally from 114.41 has completed and put focus back to 114.41 low again.

Forex News Digest

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755312609
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 03:20:00 GMT from The Australian

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755312202
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 03:19:00 GMT from Servihoo.com

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755303940
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 03:08:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755302295
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 03:05:00 GMT from New York Times

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755301290
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 03:04:00 GMT from ABC Online

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755290109
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 02:48:00 GMT from The Standard

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755257864
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 02:01:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755243326
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 01:39:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
08:30 CHF Swiss PMI Dec 65 65.9 67
08:55 EUR German Unemployment rate Dec 9.60% 10.10% 10.20%
09:00 EUR German Unemployment change Dec 12K -45 K -86 K
09:30 GBP UK PMI construction Dec 57.5 54.5 54.8
13:15 USD U.S. ADP employment Dec -40K 128 K 158 K
15:00 USD U.S. ISM manufacturing Dec 51.4 50 49.5
15:00 USD U.S. ISM prices paid Dec 47.5 54 53.5
15:00 USD U.S. Construction spending Nov -0.20% -0.50% -1.00% -0.30%
19:00 USD FOMC minutes for Dec 12
21:45 NZD New Zealand Trade balance Nov -0.84 B -1.167 B
21:45 NZD New Zealand Imports Nov 3.72 B 3.88 B
21:45 NZD New Zealand Exports Nov 2.86 B 2.71 B
Japan Market holiday

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

This entry was posted on Wednesday, February 14th, 2007 at 8:42 am and is filed under . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Jan 03 07 15:27 GMT |
Forex Mid-Day Technical Report ISM Manufacturing Fuels Further Dollar Rebound

Dollar stages a strong broad-based rebound today that started in European session. A much weaker than expected ADP employment report has halted dollar’s rise but strength resumes after better than expected ISM manufacturing index that rebounded to 51.4 in Dec. However, price paid index fell short of expectation nand reported at 47.5. Employment index also stay below 50 at 49.7. ADP employment report, which usually serves as a preview of Non-Farm Payroll, unexpected dropped 40k jobs in Dec, much below expectation of 128k addition, the first decline since April 2003.

FOMC Minutes from the December 12 meeting will be featured next. The accompanying statement in this meeting to hold rate unchanged at 5.25% was largely unchanged from prior one with two expectations. The FOMC cited the slowing in economic growth “partly reflecting a substantial cooling of the housing market”. The word “substantial” was an addition from October. Also, the statement noted that “recent indicators have been mixed”, which was new. Focus will be on how the minutes will elaborate on the above issues which could give further hint on whether Fed will cut rates this year.

Employment data from Germany was pretty solid. Total unemployment fell for a ninth consecutive month in December, marking a seasonally adjusted retreat of 108,000. Unadjusted for seasonality, total unemployment rose 12,000. The unadjusted jobless rate was unchanged at 9.6%.

Technically speaking, today’s rebound suggests dollar’s consolidation that started last month is still in progress despite Tuesday’s fall. Some more upside should be seen in dollar but still has such price actions are treated as consolidation only, upside in dollar should be limited. On the other hand, note Sterling is the weaker one in among European majors, as displayed in weakness in EUR/GBP cross too. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3234; (P) 1.3264; (R1) 1.3303; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.3091 was limited at 1.3296 and falls sharply today on broad based dollar weakness. Break of 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.3190) suggests that EUR/USD is still bounded in consolidative price actions that started at 1.3364 and put focus back to 1.3091 low. Break will encourage further decline towards 1.3051 support. But still, since we’re treating this as consolidation to rise from 1.2483 only, downside is expected to be contained by 1.2923/38 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2483 to 1.3362 at 1.2923) and bring rally resumption.

On the upside, above 1.3296 will encourage a retest of 1.3364 high. But still, firm break above 1.3364 is needed to confirm rise from 1.2483 has resumed for 1.3668 resistance (04 high). Otherwise, consolidation might still extend further.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD’s medium term up trend from 1.1639 (06 low) is still in force and is expected to continue towards 1.3668 (04 high) and probably further to 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. However, as it’s unclear whether this rally from 1.1639 represents resumption of multi-year up trend from 0.8223 or just part of a large scale consolidation that started at 1.3668, close attention will be paid to loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as EUR/USD approaches 1.3668 and then 1.3822. On the downside, break of 1.2760 support will turn medium term outlook neutral and argue that whole medium term rally from 1.1639 has possibly completed.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9668; (P) 1.9704; (R1) 1.9770; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable’s rally was limited by 1.9747 resistance and reached 1.9751 only. Subsequent sharp decline has pushed cable through 1.9565 support, suggesting that cable is still bounded in consolidative price actions that started at 1.9846 and puts focus back to 1.9433 low. Break will encourage further decline towards 1.9338/44 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.8834 to 1.9846 at 1.9340, 38.2% retracement of 1.8517 to 1.9846 at 1.9338). However, since we’re treating price actions from 1.9846 as consolidation to rise from 1.8834 only, we’d expect downside to be contained there and bring rally resumption.

On the upside, above 1.9751 will encourage a retest 1.9846 high. But still, a firm break above this level is needed to indicate recent rise from 1.8517 has resumed for 138.2% projection of 1.8090 to 1.9142 from 1.8517 at 1.9971. Otherwise, consolidation could extend further.

In the bigger picture, cable’s medium term up trend from 1.7047 is still in progress and further rise is expected to follow towards 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches 2.0106 cluster resistance. Though, decisive break of this resistance will confirm that long term up trend from 1.3680 has resumed for next upside target of 61.8% projection of 1.3680 to 1.9554 from 1.7047 at 2.0677 first. On the downside, sustained break of 1.9177 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.8517 to 1.9846 at 1.9182, 23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9846 at 1.9185) will turn medium term outlook neutral and argue that the whole rise from 1.7047 has possibly completed.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2111; (P) 1.2134; (R1) 1.2158; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s fall was once again contained by 1.2110 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.1878 to 1.2268 at 1.2119). Subsequent strong rebound has pushed USD/CHF through 1.2209 resistance and is now putting focus back to 1.2269 high. As USD/CHF is still staying above 1.2110 cluster support, rebound from 1.1878 should still be in progress and further rise cannot be ruled out towards 1.2343 resistance. On the downside, decisive break of 1.2110 cluster support is needed indicate rebound from 1.1878 has likely completed and should bring further weakness to retest this low.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.2768 is still in force USD/CHF staying below 1.2343 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.2768 to 1.1878 at 1.2323) and further decline is still in favor. However, a firm break below 1.1878 is needed to confirm such fall has resumed for 100% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2768 at 1.1404. Otherwise, consolidation that started at 1.1878 could extend further. Also, decisive break of 1.2343 will turn medium term outlook neutral and open up some other possibilities. But in any case, a firm break of 1.2343 resistance will likely bring stronger rebound towards 1.2536 resistance and probably further to retest 1.2768 resistance too.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 118.57; (P) 118.74; (R1) 118.99; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY’s rise resumes on broad based dollar strength and yen weakness, reaching as high as 119.48 so far. Bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI continues to that the short term rally from 114.41 is losing momentum. But still, a break below 118.64 support is needed to confirm a short term top is formed. Otherwise further rally is expected to follow towards 119.86 high.

On the downside, break of 118.64 will indicate correction has started and should bring decline to 117.42 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.41 to 119.21 at 117.38) or lower. But downside should be contained by 116.63 support and bring further rally.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 108.99 is still in force after correction from 119.86 was contained at 114.41 above 113.14/39 cluster support (61.87% retracement of 108.99 to 119.86 at 113.14). Break of 119.86 will bring retest of 121.38 resistance (05 high). Also, note that the current rally has pushed USD/JPY above multi-year falling trend line (147.68 to 135.20, now at 117.69) again. Sustained break of 121.38 resistance will confirm that whole up trend from 101.65 has resumed. However, below 116.63 support will argue that whole rally from 114.41 has completed and put focus back to 114.41 low again.

Forex News Digest

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755312609
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 03:20:00 GMT from The Australian

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755312202
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 03:19:00 GMT from Servihoo.com

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755303940
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 03:08:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755302295
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 03:05:00 GMT from New York Times

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755301290
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 03:04:00 GMT from ABC Online

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755290109
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 02:48:00 GMT from The Standard

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755257864
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 02:01:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755243326
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 01:39:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
08:30 CHF Swiss PMI Dec 65 65.9 67
08:55 EUR German Unemployment rate Dec 9.60% 10.10% 10.20%
09:00 EUR German Unemployment change Dec 12K -45 K -86 K
09:30 GBP UK PMI construction Dec 57.5 54.5 54.8
13:15 USD U.S. ADP employment Dec -40K 128 K 158 K
15:00 USD U.S. ISM manufacturing Dec 51.4 50 49.5
15:00 USD U.S. ISM prices paid Dec 47.5 54 53.5
15:00 USD U.S. Construction spending Nov -0.20% -0.50% -1.00% -0.30%
19:00 USD FOMC minutes for Dec 12
21:45 NZD New Zealand Trade balance Nov -0.84 B -1.167 B
21:45 NZD New Zealand Imports Nov 3.72 B 3.88 B
21:45 NZD New Zealand Exports Nov 2.86 B 2.71 B
Japan Market holiday

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

This entry was posted on Thursday, February 8th, 2007 at 4:24 pm and is filed under . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Jan 03 07 15:27 GMT |
Forex Mid-Day Technical Report ISM Manufacturing Fuels Further Dollar Rebound

Dollar stages a strong broad-based rebound today that started in European session. A much weaker than expected ADP employment report has halted dollar’s rise but strength resumes after better than expected ISM manufacturing index that rebounded to 51.4 in Dec. However, price paid index fell short of expectation nand reported at 47.5. Employment index also stay below 50 at 49.7. ADP employment report, which usually serves as a preview of Non-Farm Payroll, unexpected dropped 40k jobs in Dec, much below expectation of 128k addition, the first decline since April 2003.

FOMC Minutes from the December 12 meeting will be featured next. The accompanying statement in this meeting to hold rate unchanged at 5.25% was largely unchanged from prior one with two expectations. The FOMC cited the slowing in economic growth “partly reflecting a substantial cooling of the housing market”. The word “substantial” was an addition from October. Also, the statement noted that “recent indicators have been mixed”, which was new. Focus will be on how the minutes will elaborate on the above issues which could give further hint on whether Fed will cut rates this year.

Employment data from Germany was pretty solid. Total unemployment fell for a ninth consecutive month in December, marking a seasonally adjusted retreat of 108,000. Unadjusted for seasonality, total unemployment rose 12,000. The unadjusted jobless rate was unchanged at 9.6%.

Technically speaking, today’s rebound suggests dollar’s consolidation that started last month is still in progress despite Tuesday’s fall. Some more upside should be seen in dollar but still has such price actions are treated as consolidation only, upside in dollar should be limited. On the other hand, note Sterling is the weaker one in among European majors, as displayed in weakness in EUR/GBP cross too. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3234; (P) 1.3264; (R1) 1.3303; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.3091 was limited at 1.3296 and falls sharply today on broad based dollar weakness. Break of 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.3190) suggests that EUR/USD is still bounded in consolidative price actions that started at 1.3364 and put focus back to 1.3091 low. Break will encourage further decline towards 1.3051 support. But still, since we’re treating this as consolidation to rise from 1.2483 only, downside is expected to be contained by 1.2923/38 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2483 to 1.3362 at 1.2923) and bring rally resumption.

On the upside, above 1.3296 will encourage a retest of 1.3364 high. But still, firm break above 1.3364 is needed to confirm rise from 1.2483 has resumed for 1.3668 resistance (04 high). Otherwise, consolidation might still extend further.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD’s medium term up trend from 1.1639 (06 low) is still in force and is expected to continue towards 1.3668 (04 high) and probably further to 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. However, as it’s unclear whether this rally from 1.1639 represents resumption of multi-year up trend from 0.8223 or just part of a large scale consolidation that started at 1.3668, close attention will be paid to loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as EUR/USD approaches 1.3668 and then 1.3822. On the downside, break of 1.2760 support will turn medium term outlook neutral and argue that whole medium term rally from 1.1639 has possibly completed.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9668; (P) 1.9704; (R1) 1.9770; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable’s rally was limited by 1.9747 resistance and reached 1.9751 only. Subsequent sharp decline has pushed cable through 1.9565 support, suggesting that cable is still bounded in consolidative price actions that started at 1.9846 and puts focus back to 1.9433 low. Break will encourage further decline towards 1.9338/44 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.8834 to 1.9846 at 1.9340, 38.2% retracement of 1.8517 to 1.9846 at 1.9338). However, since we’re treating price actions from 1.9846 as consolidation to rise from 1.8834 only, we’d expect downside to be contained there and bring rally resumption.

On the upside, above 1.9751 will encourage a retest 1.9846 high. But still, a firm break above this level is needed to indicate recent rise from 1.8517 has resumed for 138.2% projection of 1.8090 to 1.9142 from 1.8517 at 1.9971. Otherwise, consolidation could extend further.

In the bigger picture, cable’s medium term up trend from 1.7047 is still in progress and further rise is expected to follow towards 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches 2.0106 cluster resistance. Though, decisive break of this resistance will confirm that long term up trend from 1.3680 has resumed for next upside target of 61.8% projection of 1.3680 to 1.9554 from 1.7047 at 2.0677 first. On the downside, sustained break of 1.9177 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.8517 to 1.9846 at 1.9182, 23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9846 at 1.9185) will turn medium term outlook neutral and argue that the whole rise from 1.7047 has possibly completed.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2111; (P) 1.2134; (R1) 1.2158; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s fall was once again contained by 1.2110 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.1878 to 1.2268 at 1.2119). Subsequent strong rebound has pushed USD/CHF through 1.2209 resistance and is now putting focus back to 1.2269 high. As USD/CHF is still staying above 1.2110 cluster support, rebound from 1.1878 should still be in progress and further rise cannot be ruled out towards 1.2343 resistance. On the downside, decisive break of 1.2110 cluster support is needed indicate rebound from 1.1878 has likely completed and should bring further weakness to retest this low.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.2768 is still in force USD/CHF staying below 1.2343 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.2768 to 1.1878 at 1.2323) and further decline is still in favor. However, a firm break below 1.1878 is needed to confirm such fall has resumed for 100% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2768 at 1.1404. Otherwise, consolidation that started at 1.1878 could extend further. Also, decisive break of 1.2343 will turn medium term outlook neutral and open up some other possibilities. But in any case, a firm break of 1.2343 resistance will likely bring stronger rebound towards 1.2536 resistance and probably further to retest 1.2768 resistance too.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 118.57; (P) 118.74; (R1) 118.99; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY’s rise resumes on broad based dollar strength and yen weakness, reaching as high as 119.48 so far. Bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI continues to that the short term rally from 114.41 is losing momentum. But still, a break below 118.64 support is needed to confirm a short term top is formed. Otherwise further rally is expected to follow towards 119.86 high.

On the downside, break of 118.64 will indicate correction has started and should bring decline to 117.42 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.41 to 119.21 at 117.38) or lower. But downside should be contained by 116.63 support and bring further rally.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 108.99 is still in force after correction from 119.86 was contained at 114.41 above 113.14/39 cluster support (61.87% retracement of 108.99 to 119.86 at 113.14). Break of 119.86 will bring retest of 121.38 resistance (05 high). Also, note that the current rally has pushed USD/JPY above multi-year falling trend line (147.68 to 135.20, now at 117.69) again. Sustained break of 121.38 resistance will confirm that whole up trend from 101.65 has resumed. However, below 116.63 support will argue that whole rally from 114.41 has completed and put focus back to 114.41 low again.

Forex News Digest

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755312609
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 03:20:00 GMT from The Australian

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Wed, 3 Jan 2007 03:19:00 GMT from Servihoo.com

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Wed, 3 Jan 2007 03:08:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755302295
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 03:05:00 GMT from New York Times

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755301290
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 03:04:00 GMT from ABC Online

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755290109
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 02:48:00 GMT from The Standard

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755257864
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 02:01:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r755243326
Wed, 3 Jan 2007 01:39:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
08:30 CHF Swiss PMI Dec 65 65.9 67
08:55 EUR German Unemployment rate Dec 9.60% 10.10% 10.20%
09:00 EUR German Unemployment change Dec 12K -45 K -86 K
09:30 GBP UK PMI construction Dec 57.5 54.5 54.8
13:15 USD U.S. ADP employment Dec -40K 128 K 158 K
15:00 USD U.S. ISM manufacturing Dec 51.4 50 49.5
15:00 USD U.S. ISM prices paid Dec 47.5 54 53.5
15:00 USD U.S. Construction spending Nov -0.20% -0.50% -1.00% -0.30%
19:00 USD FOMC minutes for Dec 12
21:45 NZD New Zealand Trade balance Nov -0.84 B -1.167 B
21:45 NZD New Zealand Imports Nov 3.72 B 3.88 B
21:45 NZD New Zealand Exports Nov 2.86 B 2.71 B
Japan Market holiday

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 10th, 2007 at 1:03 am and is filed under FX. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.