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Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Feb 09 07 14:24 GMT |
Forex Mid-Day Technical Report Sterling Tumbles Further, Euro Still in Range

Sterling continues to weaken across the board today with GBP/USD breaking last week’s low of 1.9480 and EUR/GBP breaking through 0.6670 resistance. Sterling’s weakness was triggered by BoE’s on-hold decision yesterday and further fueled by worse than expected trade deficit which widened to 7.142b from 7.9b. The report highlighted that UK’s exporters are struggling with the high exchange rate of Sterling as exports fell 1.2%. Euro weakens mildly against dollar today but is basically still kept in range. Meanwhile the Japanese yen continues to edge lower as G7 meeting starts today and speculation on yen will be mentioned in the communique fades.

Canadian dollar is boosted higher today after stronger than expected employment report which started the year by adding 89k jobs in Jan, much higher than expectation of 13.5k. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2996; (P) 1.3018; (R1) 1.3063; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD’s rise from 1.2911 was limited at 1.3042, below mentioned 1.3052/57 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2867 at 1.3057). Subsequent retreat has dragged 4 hours MACD below signal line, suggesting that the rise from 1.2911 has completed. Break of 1.2972 will confirm this and shift focus back to 1.2911support and then 1.2865 low. Also, as long as 1.3052/57 cluster resistance holds, price actions from 1.2865 will be treated as consolidation to decline from 1.3364 only. Hence, firm break of 1.2865 will confirm recent decline from 1.3364 has resumed for downside target of 1.2760 support.

On the upside, sustained break of 1.3052/57 cluster resistance will indicate the fall from 1.3364 has already completed at 1.2865, after drawing support from resistance line (1.2978 to 1.2937). Further rally should then be seen towards next resistance zone of 61.8% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2865 at 1.3173 and falling trend line resistance (1.3364 to 1.3296, now at 1.3167) first.

In the bigger picture, an important medium term top could be in place at 1.3364 already, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Sustained break of 1.2760 support, which will also have medium term rising channel line (1.1639, 1.2483, 1.2978, now at 1.2770) taken out too, will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.1639 has completed. Focus will then be on 1.2483 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3364 at 1.2502). Decisive break of 1.2483 cluster support will confirm this case and have medium term outlook turned bearish.

However, sustained break of 1.3052/57 cluster resistance will also save the case that medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress with EUR/USD kept inside the rising channel. Break of 1.3296 resistance will suggest the rise from 1.2483 has possibly resumed and EUR/USD could make a new high above 1.3364 before finally making a top on above mentioned bearish divergence condition in weekly chart.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9511; (P) 1.9618; (R1) 1.9694; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable’s decline from 1.9731 continues today by breaking through 1.9480 low, reaching as low as 1.9475 so far. As discussed before, break of rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9563) suggest that fall from 1.9913 has already resumed. Hence, at this point, further decline is expected to be seen towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237) as long as cable stays below 1.9542 support turned resistance. Touching of 1.9542 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of the mentioned trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517. Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought, before reaching 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

However, a strong rebound from or above 1.9237/61 will indicate that cable might made another high before finally topping out on the above mentioned divergence conditions.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2400; (P) 1.2455; (R1) 1.2511; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s rise from 1.2378 extends further today but at this point, it’s still limited by 1.2517 resistance. As discussed before, a short term top should be made at 1.2571 and as long as USD/CHF stays above 1.2268 resistance turned support, subsequent price action is treated as consolidation to the rise from 1.1878 only. Further rally is still in favor after finishing the consolidation. But, the path of the consolidation can be choppy and unpredictable.

Hence, we’d tend not to drill into the consolidation and look at the broader picture. Above 1.2517 will encourage a retest of 1.2571 high but break is needed to confirm rise from 1.1878 has resumed. On the downside, below 1.2378 will indicate correction from 1.2571 is still in progress but expect downside to be contained by 1.2268 and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of mentioned medium term trend line resistance (1.3238 to 1.2768, now at 1.2525) will indicate that whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Further rally should be seen towards 1.2768 cluster resistance(61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1878 at 1.2746) first. Break of 1.2768 cluster resistance will add much weight to the case that whole corrective rise from 1.1288 (04 low) has resumed and further rally should be seen towards 1.3283 (06 high) or above.

However, sustained break of 1.2268 resistance turned support will raise much doubt about this scenario. In particular, weekly MACD will still be kept negative with daily MACD staying below signal line. Deeper decline should be seen towards 1.2211 support and even further to retest 1.1878 low as the medium term down trend from 1.3283 is back in force.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.59; (P) 121.00; (R1) 121.44; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY’s rise from 119.94 extends further to as high as 121.62 today. As discussed before, the corrective fall from 122.17 should have completed at 119.94 already. Hence, at this point, further rally is expected to follow to retest 122.17 high as long as 120.96 minor support holds. Decisive break of 122.17 will confirm rally from 114.41 has resumed. Touching of 120.95 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.

In the bigger picture, with medium term up trend from 108.99 remains in force, favor is still on the case that rise from 108.99 represents resumption of long term up trend from 101.66. The preferred interpretation of the rise from 108.99 is that the first move has completed at 117.87. Subsequent price actions to 113.95, 119.86 and 114.41 is treated as interim consolidation that’s skewed upward by the rise to 119.86. Rise from 114.41 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend. With this interpretation, next upside target will be 100% projection of 108.99 to 117.87 from 114.41 at 123.29.

However, decisive break of 117.96 support will rise some doubt about this interpretation In such case, a deeper decline should follow to retest medium term rising channel (now at 115.68) first. A break of this channel will swing favors back to the case that another medium term decline should be seen towards 108.99 low before completing the whole long term consolidation that started at 121.38.

Forex News Digest

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=anzS0ldfsDKI&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=af9zwhn.aTjs&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aP_FyFfaJ.rY&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aG4l64NjX3Nk&refer=currency

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801718699
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 10:13:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801713264
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 10:09:00 GMT from ABC News

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801690514
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 09:45:00 GMT from Reuters

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801682033
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 09:37:00 GMT from The Australian

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801654577
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 09:09:00 GMT from International Herald Tribune

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan Machine orders M/M Dec -0.70% -0.70% 3.80%
23:50 JPY Japan Machine orders Y/Y Dec -3.80% -3.90% 0.70%
07:00 EUR Germany Wholesale price idx M/M Jan 0.00% -0.20% 0.00%
07:00 EUR Germany Wholesale price idx Y/Y Jan 3.10% 3.20% 3.70%
09:30 GBP U.K. Trade balance (gbp) Dec -7.14B -6.9 B -7.19 B -6.87B
12:00 CAD Canada Unemployment rate Jan 6.20% 6.10% 6.10%
12:00 CAD Canada Employment change Jan 88.9K 13.5K 61.6 K 52.5K
14:00 USD Fed’s Poole Speaks in St. Louis

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

This entry was posted on Tuesday, February 27th, 2007 at 7:04 pm and is filed under FX. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Feb 09 07 14:24 GMT |
Forex Mid-Day Technical Report Sterling Tumbles Further, Euro Still in Range

Sterling continues to weaken across the board today with GBP/USD breaking last week’s low of 1.9480 and EUR/GBP breaking through 0.6670 resistance. Sterling’s weakness was triggered by BoE’s on-hold decision yesterday and further fueled by worse than expected trade deficit which widened to 7.142b from 7.9b. The report highlighted that UK’s exporters are struggling with the high exchange rate of Sterling as exports fell 1.2%. Euro weakens mildly against dollar today but is basically still kept in range. Meanwhile the Japanese yen continues to edge lower as G7 meeting starts today and speculation on yen will be mentioned in the communique fades.

Canadian dollar is boosted higher today after stronger than expected employment report which started the year by adding 89k jobs in Jan, much higher than expectation of 13.5k. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2996; (P) 1.3018; (R1) 1.3063; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD’s rise from 1.2911 was limited at 1.3042, below mentioned 1.3052/57 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2867 at 1.3057). Subsequent retreat has dragged 4 hours MACD below signal line, suggesting that the rise from 1.2911 has completed. Break of 1.2972 will confirm this and shift focus back to 1.2911support and then 1.2865 low. Also, as long as 1.3052/57 cluster resistance holds, price actions from 1.2865 will be treated as consolidation to decline from 1.3364 only. Hence, firm break of 1.2865 will confirm recent decline from 1.3364 has resumed for downside target of 1.2760 support.

On the upside, sustained break of 1.3052/57 cluster resistance will indicate the fall from 1.3364 has already completed at 1.2865, after drawing support from resistance line (1.2978 to 1.2937). Further rally should then be seen towards next resistance zone of 61.8% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2865 at 1.3173 and falling trend line resistance (1.3364 to 1.3296, now at 1.3167) first.

In the bigger picture, an important medium term top could be in place at 1.3364 already, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Sustained break of 1.2760 support, which will also have medium term rising channel line (1.1639, 1.2483, 1.2978, now at 1.2770) taken out too, will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.1639 has completed. Focus will then be on 1.2483 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3364 at 1.2502). Decisive break of 1.2483 cluster support will confirm this case and have medium term outlook turned bearish.

However, sustained break of 1.3052/57 cluster resistance will also save the case that medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress with EUR/USD kept inside the rising channel. Break of 1.3296 resistance will suggest the rise from 1.2483 has possibly resumed and EUR/USD could make a new high above 1.3364 before finally making a top on above mentioned bearish divergence condition in weekly chart.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9511; (P) 1.9618; (R1) 1.9694; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable’s decline from 1.9731 continues today by breaking through 1.9480 low, reaching as low as 1.9475 so far. As discussed before, break of rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9563) suggest that fall from 1.9913 has already resumed. Hence, at this point, further decline is expected to be seen towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237) as long as cable stays below 1.9542 support turned resistance. Touching of 1.9542 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of the mentioned trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517. Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought, before reaching 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

However, a strong rebound from or above 1.9237/61 will indicate that cable might made another high before finally topping out on the above mentioned divergence conditions.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2400; (P) 1.2455; (R1) 1.2511; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s rise from 1.2378 extends further today but at this point, it’s still limited by 1.2517 resistance. As discussed before, a short term top should be made at 1.2571 and as long as USD/CHF stays above 1.2268 resistance turned support, subsequent price action is treated as consolidation to the rise from 1.1878 only. Further rally is still in favor after finishing the consolidation. But, the path of the consolidation can be choppy and unpredictable.

Hence, we’d tend not to drill into the consolidation and look at the broader picture. Above 1.2517 will encourage a retest of 1.2571 high but break is needed to confirm rise from 1.1878 has resumed. On the downside, below 1.2378 will indicate correction from 1.2571 is still in progress but expect downside to be contained by 1.2268 and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of mentioned medium term trend line resistance (1.3238 to 1.2768, now at 1.2525) will indicate that whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Further rally should be seen towards 1.2768 cluster resistance(61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1878 at 1.2746) first. Break of 1.2768 cluster resistance will add much weight to the case that whole corrective rise from 1.1288 (04 low) has resumed and further rally should be seen towards 1.3283 (06 high) or above.

However, sustained break of 1.2268 resistance turned support will raise much doubt about this scenario. In particular, weekly MACD will still be kept negative with daily MACD staying below signal line. Deeper decline should be seen towards 1.2211 support and even further to retest 1.1878 low as the medium term down trend from 1.3283 is back in force.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.59; (P) 121.00; (R1) 121.44; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY’s rise from 119.94 extends further to as high as 121.62 today. As discussed before, the corrective fall from 122.17 should have completed at 119.94 already. Hence, at this point, further rally is expected to follow to retest 122.17 high as long as 120.96 minor support holds. Decisive break of 122.17 will confirm rally from 114.41 has resumed. Touching of 120.95 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.

In the bigger picture, with medium term up trend from 108.99 remains in force, favor is still on the case that rise from 108.99 represents resumption of long term up trend from 101.66. The preferred interpretation of the rise from 108.99 is that the first move has completed at 117.87. Subsequent price actions to 113.95, 119.86 and 114.41 is treated as interim consolidation that’s skewed upward by the rise to 119.86. Rise from 114.41 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend. With this interpretation, next upside target will be 100% projection of 108.99 to 117.87 from 114.41 at 123.29.

However, decisive break of 117.96 support will rise some doubt about this interpretation In such case, a deeper decline should follow to retest medium term rising channel (now at 115.68) first. A break of this channel will swing favors back to the case that another medium term decline should be seen towards 108.99 low before completing the whole long term consolidation that started at 121.38.

Forex News Digest

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=anzS0ldfsDKI&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=af9zwhn.aTjs&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aP_FyFfaJ.rY&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aG4l64NjX3Nk&refer=currency

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801718699
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 10:13:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801713264
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 10:09:00 GMT from ABC News

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801690514
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 09:45:00 GMT from Reuters

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801682033
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 09:37:00 GMT from The Australian

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801654577
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 09:09:00 GMT from International Herald Tribune

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan Machine orders M/M Dec -0.70% -0.70% 3.80%
23:50 JPY Japan Machine orders Y/Y Dec -3.80% -3.90% 0.70%
07:00 EUR Germany Wholesale price idx M/M Jan 0.00% -0.20% 0.00%
07:00 EUR Germany Wholesale price idx Y/Y Jan 3.10% 3.20% 3.70%
09:30 GBP U.K. Trade balance (gbp) Dec -7.14B -6.9 B -7.19 B -6.87B
12:00 CAD Canada Unemployment rate Jan 6.20% 6.10% 6.10%
12:00 CAD Canada Employment change Jan 88.9K 13.5K 61.6 K 52.5K
14:00 USD Fed’s Poole Speaks in St. Louis

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

This entry was posted on Tuesday, February 13th, 2007 at 7:23 am and is filed under . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Feb 09 07 14:24 GMT |
Forex Mid-Day Technical Report Sterling Tumbles Further, Euro Still in Range

Sterling continues to weaken across the board today with GBP/USD breaking last week’s low of 1.9480 and EUR/GBP breaking through 0.6670 resistance. Sterling’s weakness was triggered by BoE’s on-hold decision yesterday and further fueled by worse than expected trade deficit which widened to 7.142b from 7.9b. The report highlighted that UK’s exporters are struggling with the high exchange rate of Sterling as exports fell 1.2%. Euro weakens mildly against dollar today but is basically still kept in range. Meanwhile the Japanese yen continues to edge lower as G7 meeting starts today and speculation on yen will be mentioned in the communique fades.

Canadian dollar is boosted higher today after stronger than expected employment report which started the year by adding 89k jobs in Jan, much higher than expectation of 13.5k. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2996; (P) 1.3018; (R1) 1.3063; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD’s rise from 1.2911 was limited at 1.3042, below mentioned 1.3052/57 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2867 at 1.3057). Subsequent retreat has dragged 4 hours MACD below signal line, suggesting that the rise from 1.2911 has completed. Break of 1.2972 will confirm this and shift focus back to 1.2911support and then 1.2865 low. Also, as long as 1.3052/57 cluster resistance holds, price actions from 1.2865 will be treated as consolidation to decline from 1.3364 only. Hence, firm break of 1.2865 will confirm recent decline from 1.3364 has resumed for downside target of 1.2760 support.

On the upside, sustained break of 1.3052/57 cluster resistance will indicate the fall from 1.3364 has already completed at 1.2865, after drawing support from resistance line (1.2978 to 1.2937). Further rally should then be seen towards next resistance zone of 61.8% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2865 at 1.3173 and falling trend line resistance (1.3364 to 1.3296, now at 1.3167) first.

In the bigger picture, an important medium term top could be in place at 1.3364 already, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Sustained break of 1.2760 support, which will also have medium term rising channel line (1.1639, 1.2483, 1.2978, now at 1.2770) taken out too, will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.1639 has completed. Focus will then be on 1.2483 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3364 at 1.2502). Decisive break of 1.2483 cluster support will confirm this case and have medium term outlook turned bearish.

However, sustained break of 1.3052/57 cluster resistance will also save the case that medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress with EUR/USD kept inside the rising channel. Break of 1.3296 resistance will suggest the rise from 1.2483 has possibly resumed and EUR/USD could make a new high above 1.3364 before finally making a top on above mentioned bearish divergence condition in weekly chart.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9511; (P) 1.9618; (R1) 1.9694; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable’s decline from 1.9731 continues today by breaking through 1.9480 low, reaching as low as 1.9475 so far. As discussed before, break of rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9563) suggest that fall from 1.9913 has already resumed. Hence, at this point, further decline is expected to be seen towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237) as long as cable stays below 1.9542 support turned resistance. Touching of 1.9542 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of the mentioned trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517. Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought, before reaching 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

However, a strong rebound from or above 1.9237/61 will indicate that cable might made another high before finally topping out on the above mentioned divergence conditions.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2400; (P) 1.2455; (R1) 1.2511; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s rise from 1.2378 extends further today but at this point, it’s still limited by 1.2517 resistance. As discussed before, a short term top should be made at 1.2571 and as long as USD/CHF stays above 1.2268 resistance turned support, subsequent price action is treated as consolidation to the rise from 1.1878 only. Further rally is still in favor after finishing the consolidation. But, the path of the consolidation can be choppy and unpredictable.

Hence, we’d tend not to drill into the consolidation and look at the broader picture. Above 1.2517 will encourage a retest of 1.2571 high but break is needed to confirm rise from 1.1878 has resumed. On the downside, below 1.2378 will indicate correction from 1.2571 is still in progress but expect downside to be contained by 1.2268 and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of mentioned medium term trend line resistance (1.3238 to 1.2768, now at 1.2525) will indicate that whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Further rally should be seen towards 1.2768 cluster resistance(61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1878 at 1.2746) first. Break of 1.2768 cluster resistance will add much weight to the case that whole corrective rise from 1.1288 (04 low) has resumed and further rally should be seen towards 1.3283 (06 high) or above.

However, sustained break of 1.2268 resistance turned support will raise much doubt about this scenario. In particular, weekly MACD will still be kept negative with daily MACD staying below signal line. Deeper decline should be seen towards 1.2211 support and even further to retest 1.1878 low as the medium term down trend from 1.3283 is back in force.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.59; (P) 121.00; (R1) 121.44; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY’s rise from 119.94 extends further to as high as 121.62 today. As discussed before, the corrective fall from 122.17 should have completed at 119.94 already. Hence, at this point, further rally is expected to follow to retest 122.17 high as long as 120.96 minor support holds. Decisive break of 122.17 will confirm rally from 114.41 has resumed. Touching of 120.95 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.

In the bigger picture, with medium term up trend from 108.99 remains in force, favor is still on the case that rise from 108.99 represents resumption of long term up trend from 101.66. The preferred interpretation of the rise from 108.99 is that the first move has completed at 117.87. Subsequent price actions to 113.95, 119.86 and 114.41 is treated as interim consolidation that’s skewed upward by the rise to 119.86. Rise from 114.41 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend. With this interpretation, next upside target will be 100% projection of 108.99 to 117.87 from 114.41 at 123.29.

However, decisive break of 117.96 support will rise some doubt about this interpretation In such case, a deeper decline should follow to retest medium term rising channel (now at 115.68) first. A break of this channel will swing favors back to the case that another medium term decline should be seen towards 108.99 low before completing the whole long term consolidation that started at 121.38.

Forex News Digest

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=anzS0ldfsDKI&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=af9zwhn.aTjs&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aP_FyFfaJ.rY&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aG4l64NjX3Nk&refer=currency

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801718699
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 10:13:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801713264
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 10:09:00 GMT from ABC News

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801690514
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 09:45:00 GMT from Reuters

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801682033
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 09:37:00 GMT from The Australian

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801654577
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 09:09:00 GMT from International Herald Tribune

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan Machine orders M/M Dec -0.70% -0.70% 3.80%
23:50 JPY Japan Machine orders Y/Y Dec -3.80% -3.90% 0.70%
07:00 EUR Germany Wholesale price idx M/M Jan 0.00% -0.20% 0.00%
07:00 EUR Germany Wholesale price idx Y/Y Jan 3.10% 3.20% 3.70%
09:30 GBP U.K. Trade balance (gbp) Dec -7.14B -6.9 B -7.19 B -6.87B
12:00 CAD Canada Unemployment rate Jan 6.20% 6.10% 6.10%
12:00 CAD Canada Employment change Jan 88.9K 13.5K 61.6 K 52.5K
14:00 USD Fed’s Poole Speaks in St. Louis

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

This entry was posted on Friday, February 9th, 2007 at 5:24 pm and is filed under . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Feb 09 07 14:24 GMT |
Forex Mid-Day Technical Report Sterling Tumbles Further, Euro Still in Range

Sterling continues to weaken across the board today with GBP/USD breaking last week’s low of 1.9480 and EUR/GBP breaking through 0.6670 resistance. Sterling’s weakness was triggered by BoE’s on-hold decision yesterday and further fueled by worse than expected trade deficit which widened to 7.142b from 7.9b. The report highlighted that UK’s exporters are struggling with the high exchange rate of Sterling as exports fell 1.2%. Euro weakens mildly against dollar today but is basically still kept in range. Meanwhile the Japanese yen continues to edge lower as G7 meeting starts today and speculation on yen will be mentioned in the communique fades.

Canadian dollar is boosted higher today after stronger than expected employment report which started the year by adding 89k jobs in Jan, much higher than expectation of 13.5k. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2996; (P) 1.3018; (R1) 1.3063; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD’s rise from 1.2911 was limited at 1.3042, below mentioned 1.3052/57 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2867 at 1.3057). Subsequent retreat has dragged 4 hours MACD below signal line, suggesting that the rise from 1.2911 has completed. Break of 1.2972 will confirm this and shift focus back to 1.2911support and then 1.2865 low. Also, as long as 1.3052/57 cluster resistance holds, price actions from 1.2865 will be treated as consolidation to decline from 1.3364 only. Hence, firm break of 1.2865 will confirm recent decline from 1.3364 has resumed for downside target of 1.2760 support.

On the upside, sustained break of 1.3052/57 cluster resistance will indicate the fall from 1.3364 has already completed at 1.2865, after drawing support from resistance line (1.2978 to 1.2937). Further rally should then be seen towards next resistance zone of 61.8% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2865 at 1.3173 and falling trend line resistance (1.3364 to 1.3296, now at 1.3167) first.

In the bigger picture, an important medium term top could be in place at 1.3364 already, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Sustained break of 1.2760 support, which will also have medium term rising channel line (1.1639, 1.2483, 1.2978, now at 1.2770) taken out too, will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.1639 has completed. Focus will then be on 1.2483 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3364 at 1.2502). Decisive break of 1.2483 cluster support will confirm this case and have medium term outlook turned bearish.

However, sustained break of 1.3052/57 cluster resistance will also save the case that medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress with EUR/USD kept inside the rising channel. Break of 1.3296 resistance will suggest the rise from 1.2483 has possibly resumed and EUR/USD could make a new high above 1.3364 before finally making a top on above mentioned bearish divergence condition in weekly chart.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9511; (P) 1.9618; (R1) 1.9694; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable’s decline from 1.9731 continues today by breaking through 1.9480 low, reaching as low as 1.9475 so far. As discussed before, break of rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9563) suggest that fall from 1.9913 has already resumed. Hence, at this point, further decline is expected to be seen towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237) as long as cable stays below 1.9542 support turned resistance. Touching of 1.9542 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of the mentioned trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517. Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought, before reaching 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

However, a strong rebound from or above 1.9237/61 will indicate that cable might made another high before finally topping out on the above mentioned divergence conditions.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2400; (P) 1.2455; (R1) 1.2511; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s rise from 1.2378 extends further today but at this point, it’s still limited by 1.2517 resistance. As discussed before, a short term top should be made at 1.2571 and as long as USD/CHF stays above 1.2268 resistance turned support, subsequent price action is treated as consolidation to the rise from 1.1878 only. Further rally is still in favor after finishing the consolidation. But, the path of the consolidation can be choppy and unpredictable.

Hence, we’d tend not to drill into the consolidation and look at the broader picture. Above 1.2517 will encourage a retest of 1.2571 high but break is needed to confirm rise from 1.1878 has resumed. On the downside, below 1.2378 will indicate correction from 1.2571 is still in progress but expect downside to be contained by 1.2268 and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of mentioned medium term trend line resistance (1.3238 to 1.2768, now at 1.2525) will indicate that whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Further rally should be seen towards 1.2768 cluster resistance(61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1878 at 1.2746) first. Break of 1.2768 cluster resistance will add much weight to the case that whole corrective rise from 1.1288 (04 low) has resumed and further rally should be seen towards 1.3283 (06 high) or above.

However, sustained break of 1.2268 resistance turned support will raise much doubt about this scenario. In particular, weekly MACD will still be kept negative with daily MACD staying below signal line. Deeper decline should be seen towards 1.2211 support and even further to retest 1.1878 low as the medium term down trend from 1.3283 is back in force.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.59; (P) 121.00; (R1) 121.44; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY’s rise from 119.94 extends further to as high as 121.62 today. As discussed before, the corrective fall from 122.17 should have completed at 119.94 already. Hence, at this point, further rally is expected to follow to retest 122.17 high as long as 120.96 minor support holds. Decisive break of 122.17 will confirm rally from 114.41 has resumed. Touching of 120.95 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.

In the bigger picture, with medium term up trend from 108.99 remains in force, favor is still on the case that rise from 108.99 represents resumption of long term up trend from 101.66. The preferred interpretation of the rise from 108.99 is that the first move has completed at 117.87. Subsequent price actions to 113.95, 119.86 and 114.41 is treated as interim consolidation that’s skewed upward by the rise to 119.86. Rise from 114.41 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend. With this interpretation, next upside target will be 100% projection of 108.99 to 117.87 from 114.41 at 123.29.

However, decisive break of 117.96 support will rise some doubt about this interpretation In such case, a deeper decline should follow to retest medium term rising channel (now at 115.68) first. A break of this channel will swing favors back to the case that another medium term decline should be seen towards 108.99 low before completing the whole long term consolidation that started at 121.38.

Forex News Digest

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=anzS0ldfsDKI&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=af9zwhn.aTjs&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aP_FyFfaJ.rY&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aG4l64NjX3Nk&refer=currency

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801718699
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 10:13:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801713264
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 10:09:00 GMT from ABC News

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801690514
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 09:45:00 GMT from Reuters

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801682033
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 09:37:00 GMT from The Australian

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801654577
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 09:09:00 GMT from International Herald Tribune

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan Machine orders M/M Dec -0.70% -0.70% 3.80%
23:50 JPY Japan Machine orders Y/Y Dec -3.80% -3.90% 0.70%
07:00 EUR Germany Wholesale price idx M/M Jan 0.00% -0.20% 0.00%
07:00 EUR Germany Wholesale price idx Y/Y Jan 3.10% 3.20% 3.70%
09:30 GBP U.K. Trade balance (gbp) Dec -7.14B -6.9 B -7.19 B -6.87B
12:00 CAD Canada Unemployment rate Jan 6.20% 6.10% 6.10%
12:00 CAD Canada Employment change Jan 88.9K 13.5K 61.6 K 52.5K
14:00 USD Fed’s Poole Speaks in St. Louis

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

This entry was posted on Friday, February 9th, 2007 at 5:24 pm and is filed under . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Feb 09 07 14:24 GMT |
Forex Mid-Day Technical Report Sterling Tumbles Further, Euro Still in Range

Sterling continues to weaken across the board today with GBP/USD breaking last week’s low of 1.9480 and EUR/GBP breaking through 0.6670 resistance. Sterling’s weakness was triggered by BoE’s on-hold decision yesterday and further fueled by worse than expected trade deficit which widened to 7.142b from 7.9b. The report highlighted that UK’s exporters are struggling with the high exchange rate of Sterling as exports fell 1.2%. Euro weakens mildly against dollar today but is basically still kept in range. Meanwhile the Japanese yen continues to edge lower as G7 meeting starts today and speculation on yen will be mentioned in the communique fades.

Canadian dollar is boosted higher today after stronger than expected employment report which started the year by adding 89k jobs in Jan, much higher than expectation of 13.5k. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2996; (P) 1.3018; (R1) 1.3063; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD’s rise from 1.2911 was limited at 1.3042, below mentioned 1.3052/57 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2867 at 1.3057). Subsequent retreat has dragged 4 hours MACD below signal line, suggesting that the rise from 1.2911 has completed. Break of 1.2972 will confirm this and shift focus back to 1.2911support and then 1.2865 low. Also, as long as 1.3052/57 cluster resistance holds, price actions from 1.2865 will be treated as consolidation to decline from 1.3364 only. Hence, firm break of 1.2865 will confirm recent decline from 1.3364 has resumed for downside target of 1.2760 support.

On the upside, sustained break of 1.3052/57 cluster resistance will indicate the fall from 1.3364 has already completed at 1.2865, after drawing support from resistance line (1.2978 to 1.2937). Further rally should then be seen towards next resistance zone of 61.8% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2865 at 1.3173 and falling trend line resistance (1.3364 to 1.3296, now at 1.3167) first.

In the bigger picture, an important medium term top could be in place at 1.3364 already, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Sustained break of 1.2760 support, which will also have medium term rising channel line (1.1639, 1.2483, 1.2978, now at 1.2770) taken out too, will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.1639 has completed. Focus will then be on 1.2483 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3364 at 1.2502). Decisive break of 1.2483 cluster support will confirm this case and have medium term outlook turned bearish.

However, sustained break of 1.3052/57 cluster resistance will also save the case that medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress with EUR/USD kept inside the rising channel. Break of 1.3296 resistance will suggest the rise from 1.2483 has possibly resumed and EUR/USD could make a new high above 1.3364 before finally making a top on above mentioned bearish divergence condition in weekly chart.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9511; (P) 1.9618; (R1) 1.9694; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable’s decline from 1.9731 continues today by breaking through 1.9480 low, reaching as low as 1.9475 so far. As discussed before, break of rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9563) suggest that fall from 1.9913 has already resumed. Hence, at this point, further decline is expected to be seen towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237) as long as cable stays below 1.9542 support turned resistance. Touching of 1.9542 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of the mentioned trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517. Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought, before reaching 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

However, a strong rebound from or above 1.9237/61 will indicate that cable might made another high before finally topping out on the above mentioned divergence conditions.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2400; (P) 1.2455; (R1) 1.2511; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s rise from 1.2378 extends further today but at this point, it’s still limited by 1.2517 resistance. As discussed before, a short term top should be made at 1.2571 and as long as USD/CHF stays above 1.2268 resistance turned support, subsequent price action is treated as consolidation to the rise from 1.1878 only. Further rally is still in favor after finishing the consolidation. But, the path of the consolidation can be choppy and unpredictable.

Hence, we’d tend not to drill into the consolidation and look at the broader picture. Above 1.2517 will encourage a retest of 1.2571 high but break is needed to confirm rise from 1.1878 has resumed. On the downside, below 1.2378 will indicate correction from 1.2571 is still in progress but expect downside to be contained by 1.2268 and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of mentioned medium term trend line resistance (1.3238 to 1.2768, now at 1.2525) will indicate that whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Further rally should be seen towards 1.2768 cluster resistance(61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1878 at 1.2746) first. Break of 1.2768 cluster resistance will add much weight to the case that whole corrective rise from 1.1288 (04 low) has resumed and further rally should be seen towards 1.3283 (06 high) or above.

However, sustained break of 1.2268 resistance turned support will raise much doubt about this scenario. In particular, weekly MACD will still be kept negative with daily MACD staying below signal line. Deeper decline should be seen towards 1.2211 support and even further to retest 1.1878 low as the medium term down trend from 1.3283 is back in force.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.59; (P) 121.00; (R1) 121.44; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY’s rise from 119.94 extends further to as high as 121.62 today. As discussed before, the corrective fall from 122.17 should have completed at 119.94 already. Hence, at this point, further rally is expected to follow to retest 122.17 high as long as 120.96 minor support holds. Decisive break of 122.17 will confirm rally from 114.41 has resumed. Touching of 120.95 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.

In the bigger picture, with medium term up trend from 108.99 remains in force, favor is still on the case that rise from 108.99 represents resumption of long term up trend from 101.66. The preferred interpretation of the rise from 108.99 is that the first move has completed at 117.87. Subsequent price actions to 113.95, 119.86 and 114.41 is treated as interim consolidation that’s skewed upward by the rise to 119.86. Rise from 114.41 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend. With this interpretation, next upside target will be 100% projection of 108.99 to 117.87 from 114.41 at 123.29.

However, decisive break of 117.96 support will rise some doubt about this interpretation In such case, a deeper decline should follow to retest medium term rising channel (now at 115.68) first. A break of this channel will swing favors back to the case that another medium term decline should be seen towards 108.99 low before completing the whole long term consolidation that started at 121.38.

Forex News Digest

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=anzS0ldfsDKI&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=af9zwhn.aTjs&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aP_FyFfaJ.rY&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aG4l64NjX3Nk&refer=currency

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801718699
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 10:13:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801713264
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 10:09:00 GMT from ABC News

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801690514
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 09:45:00 GMT from Reuters

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801682033
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 09:37:00 GMT from The Australian

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r801654577
Fri, 9 Feb 2007 09:09:00 GMT from International Herald Tribune

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan Machine orders M/M Dec -0.70% -0.70% 3.80%
23:50 JPY Japan Machine orders Y/Y Dec -3.80% -3.90% 0.70%
07:00 EUR Germany Wholesale price idx M/M Jan 0.00% -0.20% 0.00%
07:00 EUR Germany Wholesale price idx Y/Y Jan 3.10% 3.20% 3.70%
09:30 GBP U.K. Trade balance (gbp) Dec -7.14B -6.9 B -7.19 B -6.87B
12:00 CAD Canada Unemployment rate Jan 6.20% 6.10% 6.10%
12:00 CAD Canada Employment change Jan 88.9K 13.5K 61.6 K 52.5K
14:00 USD Fed’s Poole Speaks in St. Louis

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

This entry was posted on Friday, February 9th, 2007 at 5:24 pm and is filed under . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.