Stocks Stretched Between Bond Yield Gains And Mild Oil Price Action

July 26th, 2007

Watch today’s Markets Desk video.

Oil prices softened somewhat, bond yields forged higher and stocks rose, then slipped again in afternoon trading.

The NYSE composite was up 0.3%, the Nasdaq up 0.5% at 2:57 p.m. ET. Nasdaq’s Computers Index continued to lead the gains, rising 1.1%. The S&P 500 was up 0.4%, the Dow was up 0.2%. Volume turned mixed, falling slightly on the NYSE, up 8% on the Nasdaq.

Crude oil prices calmed to 68.96 a barrel, up 10 cents, after spiking as high as 69.88 in earlier trading. Ten-year bond yields rose to 5.17%.

Losers led winners by a narrow margin on the Nasdaq and were roughly equal on the NYSE. The selling bypassed most leadings stocks.

Norsk Hydro () added 1.03 to 37.94. The diversified Norwegian energy operator’s shares were edging into new high territory on higher volume. The stock was just above a 37.24 buy point on a pullback to the 10-week moving average.

Potash Saskatchewan () reversed upward, adding 1.51 to 78.61. That lifted the fertilizer maker’s shares to 39% above a 56.45 buy point after a flat-base breakout in April. Shares were just below Tuesday’s high.

Insurance broker Life Partners Holdings () gained 1.11 to 34.22. The stock has advanced in 10 of the last 14 sessions. It is extended almost 80% from a 19.22 buy point on a pullback near the 10-week line.

Dollar Financial () gapped down and tumbled 1.61 to 29.49 after announcing an offering of up to $150 million in senior convertible notes. The move dumped the stock below its 10-week moving average line, and left it 11% below its May high.

1 p.m. ET Update: Stocks Bounce, Then Slip On Manufacturing Data

By ALAN R. ELLIOTT

Indexes headed higher, then flatened just after the release of the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing data.

The NYSE had slipped less than 0.1% at 12:55 p.m. ET. The Nasdaq gained 0.1%, led by positive performance in its computers index. The S&P 500 was up less than 0.1% and the Dow rose 0.2%.

Both the NYSE and Nasdaq volumes were higher.

Mid-Atlantic manufacturing and orders rose above expectations in June, buoying stocks in early afternoon trade. The Philly Fed’s regional manufacturing index clocked a reading of 18.0 13.8 points higher than May and more than twice the consensus of 8.0.

More stocks fell than gained, but few leaders took significant hits. Fertilizer makers extended their recent run.

CF Industries Holdings () added 3.08 to 59.69. That put shares 27% above a 46.82 buy point on a recent pullback to the 10-week moving average.

Terra Nitrogen () gained 2.67 to 116.25. The stock is now extended 112% from its most recent buy point, 54.85, on a February pullback to the 10-week line.

Graphics chip maker Nvidia () jumped 2.57 to 42.43 after an upgrade to overweight by Lehman Brothers. The move pushed the stock to new highs on solid volume, acing a June 5 breakout above a 24-week cup-with-handle base. Shares were 18% above the base’s 36.10 buy point.

Diamond Offshore () added 2.54 to 102.62 after Credit Suisse First Boston increased the stock’s price target. The move held shares in new high territory, just above a 98 buy point on a 13-month base.

HMS Holdings () crumbled 1.08 to 18.79. The 6% loss deepened the stock’s six-week stay below its 10-week moving average.

11 a.m. ET update: Stocks Recover From Early Dip As Bond Yields, Oil Ease

By ALAN R. ELLIOTT

Oil prices and bond yields eased in late morning trading, freeing stocks to seek higher ground.

The NYSE and Nasdaq composites were both of 0.3% at 11:03 a.m. ET. The S&P 500 was up 0.4%, while the Dow added 0.1%.

The Shanghai composite rose 1.2%. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.2%. European stocks fell, with the FTSE 100 in London shedding 1.5%.

Bond selling continued in early trade, pushing bond yields higher and keeping pressure on stocks. The 10-year yield nipped 5.16% from its 5.15% close Wednesday. Selling softened in late morning, dropping yields to 5.14%.

Crude oil prices also turned, after adding 80 cents to $69.66 a barrel in early trading as tension in Nigeria continued. Prices softened to a 61-cent gain by 10:49 a.m. ET. July futures contracts dropped almost $1 a barrel Wednesday, dipping briefly below 68.

Initial jobless claims edged slightly higher, adding 10,000 to 324,000, just above estimates, for the week ended June 16. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index is due out at 12 p.m. ET.

Gainers ran just ahead of decliners on the NYSE; neck-and-neck on the Nasdaq. A handful of Chinese stocks led in early action.

China Petroleum & Chemical () gapped up, adding 4.05 to 116.80 after announcing Wednesday it planned a $6 billion initial offering on the Shanghai exchange. China’s largest crude oil refiner, also known as Sinopec, its stock broke out of an 18-week cup-with-handle base in May.

China life Insurance () jumped 2.15 to 53.95 after Deutsche Bank eased its rating to hold from sell. The stock is just above a 51.04 buy point on a slightly low handle on a 23-week cup-with-handle base. It is 7% below its Jan. 3 high.

China Mobile () gained 0.94 to 52.55 after reporting Tuesday its number of users rose from 5.3 million to 5.5 million in May. The wireless services provider’s stock broke out of an irregular, 16-week cup-shaped base Wednesday. Shares are now just above that base’s 51.88 buy point.

On the downside, Buffalo Wild Wings () reversed sharply, gapping down and losing 2.63 to 44.01. The 6% drop left shares above the 10-week moving average line, but below the 44.97 buy point from a pullback to the line. The stock was 8% below Wednesday’s high.

Options In Focus: IBD 100 Options

July 26th, 2007

Wednesday was likely a busy one for many option traders that focus on IBD 100 stocks. With volatile price swings, earnings and increased premiums across-the-board, there were plenty of reasons for considering adjustments and perhaps opening fresh positions as well. In the following, we’ll recap a couple of the more extreme regions of that particular universe.

In front of this evening’s earnings release, Apple () saw a surge in options activity and in its risk premiums. On the day, total volume swelled to more than 600,000 contracts versus its typically brisk 200,000. Further, a Put / Call ratio in conjunction with existing high and firmer implieds during Wednesday’s session suggest bullish bets were being wagered in front of the report.

ATM implieds for August were near 55% with the 140 / 135 Strangle fetching 13 points or $1300 a contract. Hence, on an expiration basis traders would need shares of AAPL either above 153 or below 122 in order to profit. In the after-hours session, the stock is moving to the plus side near $143 in volatile trade. However, with an expected decline in the implieds, the “juice” or Vega component of nearly 0.30 per contract will mean a stronger move is still necessary if any profits in Thursday’s session are going to materialize. If we anticipate a drop in the premiums to the 40% area, the stand alone ‘vol crush’ for the Strangle will be approaching 4.50 points of the 13 point initial debit.

While trading in Apple’s options was impressive, Wednesday’s most unusual activity in percentage terms was Buffalo Wings (). The restaurant operator isn’t scheduled to release its earnings until July 30, but it appears some bullish positioning is taking place in front of the report. While signs of distribution have crept into the picture; the latest being today’s technical attempt at breaking one-month price supports, option traders were most active in the OTM August 45 Calls. Front month implieds spiked by five percentage points to 67% during the session.

No doubt, general market conditions are in part responsible for the increased pump in implieds. But, with more than 2,000 contracts changing hands, existing Open Interest of just 1,407 and daily average volume of just 1,240; demand for protective strategies in lieu of stock look to be more than sufficient evidence. Also active and accounting for nearly as much volume, the OTM September 32.50 Puts look like a ‘cheapy’ bet. While the implieds are theoretically rich, for a 0.60 closing price and three sessions remaining until the report, the logic of using them as the basis for a starter position can be appreciated in conjunction with risk management.

Visit the «www.investors.com» for an extensive list of option-related terms.

The observations provided are not investment advice or a recommendation, the suitability of which is considered the responsibility of the trader.

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Spotlight: Bill Marriott

July 26th, 2007

PARIS: John Willard Marriott Jr. still has a glint in his eye. At 75, an age when most chief executives are enjoying retirement, he wants to beat the competition, keep expanding and provide the best possible service at the hotels that bear his family name.

“I love it,” Marriott said of his job during a recent visit to Paris. “After almost 52 years in the business, I feel like Im beginning to understand it a little bit.”

People warm to Bill Marriott. There was a buzz among staff and guests in the Paris Marriott Hotel Champs Йlysйes, one of the companys smaller luxury properties, as he glided around the lobby. Instantly recognizable from the giant, slightly soft-focus portrait with his father that hangs in all company properties, Marriott was approached by American guests eager to chat.

He leads a globetrotting life, traveling 90 days a year - after Paris, he was off to Shanghai to open another hotel - but a glance at his blog, http://www.blogs.marriott.com, confirms Marriotts folksy roots. Postings range from regulatory issues to anecdotes past and present, burger sauce recipes, updates on staff, and family reflections.

The empire was born in 1927, when Marriotts father, John Willard Sr., and his mother, Alice, drove east from Utah in a Model T Ford to open Hot Shoppe, a root beer stand, in Washington. On May 20, the first guests gathered around a radio to listen to news of Charles Lindberghs historic trans-Atlantic solo flight.

Marriotts father opened the first Marriott hotel 50 years ago, also in Washington. Father and son, who took over as chief executive in 1972, presided over the creation of one of the worlds largest hospitality companies, comprising an expected 3,000 hotels and 151,000 employees in around 70 countries by the end of 2007. In addition to the Marriott brands, Marriott International also includes Ritz-Carlton, Bulgari, Renaissance, Courtyard and Residence Inn hotels. Roughly 80 percent of business is U.S.-derived, but the company is now emphasizing China, India and Europe.

In the first quarter, Marriotts net income nearly tripled, to $182 million from $61 million a year earlier, helped partly by higher rates. Revenue per available room, a key measure of profitability in the hotel business, was up 6.6 percent for the quarter. Sales climbed 7.4 percent to $2.9 billion.

The company did lower its revenue outlook for the year amid weakness in limited-service hotels like Courtyard and Residence. That led some analysts to fear that profit margins might soon drop. But Marriott appears unconcerned: “Were growing about 15 percent a year in terms of earnings and cash flow and we expect to continue to do that” beyond 2007, he said.

Investors, however, seem uneasy. For the year to date, the companys shares are down around 7.5 percent, while Starwood Hotels Resorts Worldwide, a major rival, is up 7.8 percent, and Wyndham Worldwide, the operator of lower-end properties like Ramada and Days Inn, is up 15.3 percent.

“Marriotts quarter confirmed our belief that demand is decelerating and the potential for significant supply increases looms on the horizon,” Steven Kent and Jared Miller, analysts at Goldman Sachs, said in a note to investors at the end of April. “We continue to recommend that investors move away from the group.”

One area where Marriott may be playing catch-up, critics contend, has been the response to market trends. The dominant themes in lodging are now strong brand recognition, comfort, design, multi-use lounges and technology. Boutique hotels, particularly independents like Stein Group, have flourished, while cosy and innovative chains like Starwood, with its W and Aloft brands, are hits with Generation Y, or customers born after 1970.

Did Marriott miss the boat? He doesnt think so. His hotels have been redecorated and given technology upgrades and multi-function common areas. “Were really trying to re-adapt our hotels to take care of all segments,” Marriott said. “We must.”

But Marriott is also known for his conservative taste and is not about to change the habit of a lifetime. In a mischievous swipe at Starwood, Marriott said “supermodern” dйcor was passй. “When you get up in the morning and its all black and gray,” he said, “youre going to have a black-and-gray day.”

What spare time Marriott has is taken up with family - he and his wife, Donna, have four children and 14 grandchildren - and church. The family is active in the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, or the Mormons. “Its been a guiding force in my life,” Marriott said. “Its helped me in the business world.”

Yesterday’s trading: Flood worries sink Marston’s

July 26th, 2007

Fears that any statement will effectively be a profits warning dragged shares of the Pedigree bitter and Banks’s Ale company down to 385p before they closed 16p off at 392p. The year’s high was 477p.

Marston’s, formerly known as , have hundreds of pubs in the West Country and Wales, the worst affected areas.

Bears roared that some 100 tenanted pubs, which have been under more than three feet or so of water for the past week and unable to open their doors for business, could be under-insured. Many live-in ‘guvnors’ of tenanted pubs always cut corners. If true, Marston’s could drown in legal paper work in the coming months.

Marston’s in May toasted a 7% sales rise after increasing its focus on food. That attracted more families to its estate and underlying profits rose to 42m.

Some 90% of its pubs have gardens, patios and some form of outside trading area, and so business was also not too affected by the UK smoking ban. Punters can now only fill their wellington boots with muddy water and are staying at home, upstairs!

Bury St Edmunds brewer also drowned in a sea of selling and closed 36p down at 1035p. lost 31p to 1225p, while fading hopes of a bid from Starwood of the US dragged leisure giant 65p lower to 1750p.

Buyers raised their glasses to Peroni brewer though and the shares touched 1327p before closing 7p better at 1305p.

and Lehman have recently sung the South African group’s praises and raised their target prices above 14.

Rumours are also doing the rounds again that America’s Altria, the world’s largest tobacco group, is on the verge of selling all, or part, of its 29% stake in SAB.

Resilient and even showing a 34.9 point rally by lunch-time, the fragile Footsie fell away late to finish 44.4 points off at 6,454.3 on continuing fears of higher UK interest rates. New Chancellor Alistair Darling said he would be ‘resolute on inflation’ implying there could be another % hike in the Bank of England’s locker. Wall Street thankfully behaved itself in early trading, recovering 105 points following forecast-beating quarterly earnings from and .

Cautious comments from Goldman Sachs about how a lower oil price is affecting power prices left down a further 26p to 482p for a two-day decline of 50p.

Rumours of a profits warning fuelled further selling of Argos-to-Homebase group , 15p off at 412p.

buzzed 5p higher to 328p amid talk Brandes Investment Partners was adding to its 4% shareholding. Charles Dunstone’s climbed 13p to 353p with super optimists touting a jackanory that (0.3p dearer at 156p) could be interested in making an offer.

The closing of some short positions after Tuesday’s collapse on yet another profits warning helped recover 7p to 154p. Oriel Securities has slashed its full-year pre-tax profit forecast to 135m and cut its target price to 125p from 150p.

Former shop broker sparked heavy selling of Industrial engineer after publishing a scathing ’sell’ note including a much lower target price of 119p. The shares were heavily sold down to 290p before rallying to finish at 310p, still 33p down on balance.

Analyst Chris Dyett said: ‘Market expectations have decoupled from reality for a company that has consistently over-promised and under-delivered.’ He has downgraded 2007 revenues forecasts to 3.8m from 5m and to 8m from 9m for 2008. Meanwhile, Pursuit’s current broker Cenkos maintains a target price above 5 because it expects imminent newsflow to fully justify a market capitalisation of 200m.

Lara Croft computer games maker Entertainment were zapped again as investors continued to jump ship after Tuesday’s shock profits warning. It slumped 24p more to 374p for a two-day collapse of 146p. Dealers reckon its now ripe for takeover and are sure that property tycoon Robert Tchenguiz and 15% shareholder will sound out buyers. Warner Brothers sits on 10%.

BEING granted Recognised Investment Exchange status by the is big news for PLUS Markets, p

off at 29p. It will allow many more fund managers to consider investment in PLUS quoted companies. And financial houses will transact more business ‘on-exchange’ as it is now a ‘prescribed market’ with oversight. (16p off at 1379p) beware.

Other stories:
Northern Rock boosts dividend payout
Glaxo soothes Avandia crisis with buyback
Jobs threat in Resolution merger
Court may shut down Facebook
City focus: Profit washout at Sports Direct
Oil profits soar as $100 barrel is forecast
Reckitt puts a new shine on revenues
Halfords riding high from Tour de France
Capita to hand out 155m windfall
New BP chief’s anger as profits slip
Amazon delivers ‘blowout quarter’
Apple hit as iPhone sales disappoint

Benchmark Yield Dips As Credit Worries Weigh Against Stock Market’s Advance

July 26th, 2007

Treasury debt prices barely budged Wednesday, after stocks bounced back on strong corporate profits that shifted investors’ focus from credit concerns.

Trade was choppy, reflecting large swings in U.S. equities markets where sentiment was torn between credit worries sparked by news that Chrysler had postponed a $12 billion auto loan deal and strong profits.

That left Treasury investors indecisive, although benchmark yields briefly dipped to a seven-week low.

“Treasuries are taking their cue from the stock market. Being their earnings (reporting) season, it’s just been very volatile, leaving Treasuries pretty much unchanged,” said Rudy Narvas, senior analyst at the market analysis company 4Cast.

Concerns about financing for takeovers temporarily weighed on the stock market, allowing the bond market to tap a modest flight-to-quality bid and driving the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to just below 4.90 % its lowest since the start of June.

In late New York trade, the 10-year note was up in price for a yield of 4.90%, compared with 4.92% late Tuesday. Two-year notes were unchanged in price to yield 4.74%, compared with 4.75%. Bond prices and yields move inversely.

The market was little moved by a lackluster auction of $18 billion worth of two-year notes. The Federal Reserve’s beige book, an anecdotal summary of economic conditions around the U.S., also attracted mild interest from the bond market.

The report noted moderate economic growth in several districts. It said districts overall reported continuing production cost pressures, especially for oil-related items.

Analysts said it was a reminder to investors that inflation remains a concern for the central bank, with some suggesting that those worries could see the 30-year government bond struggle to break below 5.00%.

“It’s almost like 5% is the tipping point. Part of that is the overhang from inflation,” said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research.

The 30-year bond traded up 2/32 in price for a yield of 5.02%, compared with 5.03% late Tuesday.