Scotland running on empty
IT IS a mostly wealthy part of the world’s fourth-largest economy, enjoying one of the longest unbroken spells of prosperity for several decades.
So how, in the early years of the 21st century, did Scotland come so close this weekend to watching as the lights went out?
The problems began last September when safety checks at the Hunterston B power station in Ayrshire revealed higher-than-expected levels of cracking in the station’s boiler tubes. It has been shut ever since, leaving Scotland’s power supply dangerously exposed.
The cutbacks prompted warnings prior to the winter that an unusually cold snap could see rationing for industries. However, the mostly warm winter looked to have ensured the grid would get through.
But that all changed last weekend when the accident at Longannet caused havoc. Usually a net exporter of energy, Scotland has suddenly been faced with a potential shortage. Only a combination of more warm weather and the back-stop of hydro power appears to have staved off disaster.
These were the circumstances of a particular crisis. But behind this, experts warn, lies a wider, more systemic, problem which will only exacerbate our energy worries in future. Currently, Scotland’s energy needs still largely rely on fossil fuels. Even by 2010, 45% of our energy will come from oil, coal and gas. Nuclear will provide a quarter, as will wind. The remaining 5% will come from hydro power.
However, while Scotland’s energy needs will go up (by as much as 50% over the next 40 years), the supply of fossil fuels will fall. A report by the Royal Society of Edinburgh recently concluded that, by 2020, the country will be largely dependent on imported gas, much of it from politically unstable countries. At the same time, the UK government is committed to reducing its carbon emissions by 60% by 2050. So how will all this sit together?
The main solution proposed has been a massive increase in renewables. Scottish ministers are gung-ho about the potential they have on their hands. But their UK counterparts are more wary. They insist that renewables alone will fail to properly meet consumer demand.
Thus, the question of nuclear power remains open. Tony Blair has declared himself in favour of a new generation of stations,
however, in Scotland, the future of nuclear energy remains uncertain. And with Scottish ministers having power over planning, they may be able to hold off Westminster demands for new stations.
This weekend’s revelations have shown just how fragile the country’s electricity system really is - and how close we are on a daily basis to its complete breakdown.